Betting on Errol Spence Jr. vs Danny Garcia

Errol Spence Jr. vs Danny Garcia

On Saturday, December 5th, Premiere Boxing Champions, in conjunction with FOX Sports PPV, will present a night of boxing action live from the AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Texas. The PPV carries a hefty $74.95 price tag.

This show features a welterweight title fight as Errol Spence Jr. defends his IBF and WBC championship belts against former two division world champ Danny Garcia.

The co-main event is a WBA super welterweight title eliminator as Sebastian Fundora battles Jorge Cota. Josesito Lopez will battle Francisco Santana in what could be the fight of the night.

The opening bout for the PPV card, which begins at 9PM ET, is a featherweight contest as Eduardo Ramirez takes on Miguel Flores.

Boxing betting sites have released odds for some of the fights. Let’s step inside the ring to examine these odds, identify any potential value, and hit these predictions with a Mike Tyson like uppercut.

Eduardo Ramirez vs Miguel Flores

  • Eduardo Ramirez (NA)
  • Miguel Flores (NA)

This bout has been a game of musical chairs as promoters have had to make adjustments numerous times over the last few months.

Originally, it was supposed to be Eduardo Ramirez versus Tugstsogt Nyambayar in a WBC eliminator back in September, but Ramirez withdrew due to an illness. Nyambayar went on to fight Cobia Breedy instead.

Ramirez was then scheduled to take on Julio Ceda at this PPV event on December 5th, but Ceda had to withdraw this week due to a positive covid test.

Fortunately, PBC promoters were able to keep Ramirez on the card as they decided to take Miguel Flores out of his undercard fight against Isaac Avelar and bump him up to this main card showdown.

After being an underdog in his last fight against Leduan Barthelemy, I expect Eduardo Ramirez to be the betting favorite in this contest once online betting sites release odds for this bout.

Ramirez vs Flores Preview

Details Eduardo Ramirez Miguel Flores
Age 27 28
Height 5’6” 5’8”
Reach 70” 69”
Total Fights 29 27
Record 23-2-3 24-3
Knockouts 10 12

For a last minute booking, this is going to be an exciting fight. Miguel Flores last fought 13 months ago against Leo Santa Cruz for the WBA featherweight title. He came up short in his quest to become world champ as he lost via unanimous decision.

Although Flores has gone 2-3 in his last five fights, he’s going to be a formidable opponent for Ramirez this weekend.

Eduardo Ramirez will have to regroup after his WBC title eliminator fight against Julio Ceja fell through. He’s currently ranked 5th in the WBC and 13th in the WBA featherweight rankings.

With a win this weekend, Ramirez could possibly crack the Top 10 in the WBA, but I’m not sure if he can move up any further in the WBC. More than likely, we could get that Ramirez vs Nyambayar match in the spring of 2021 to decide the next WBC title contender against Gary Russell Jr.

Ramirez last fought 13 months ago and pulled off the upset against Leduan Barthelemy. However, he didn’t just pull out a win, he knocked out Barthelemy in the 4th round. That sent a message to others in his weight class.

It was also a nice bounce back win for Ramirez who lost in June 2019 via unanimous decision to Claudio Marrero, an opponent he was supposed to beat.

Ramirez is 3-2 in his last five fights as he also lost to Lee Selby in an IBF featherweight title fight three years ago.

As for this bout, I see Ramirez coming away with a hard fought decision victory. Flores is tough and both men are at an equal disadvantage of having only a few days to prepare for each other. With that said, Ramirez appears to be the better of the two fighters.

Ramirez vs Flores Preview –Ramirez (NA)

Josesito Lopez vs Francisco Santana

  • Josesito Lopez (NA)
  • Francisco Santana (NA)

As of this writing, there are no available betting odds for this welterweight fight. If I had to guess, I would say that Josesito Lopez will be listed as the favorite. He was the betting favorite in his last two contests.

Francisco Santana was the underdog for two of his last three fights. In fact, his last bout against Jarrett Hurd saw Santana listed as a massive underdog with odds above +2800.

Lopez vs Santana Preview

Details Josesito Lopez Francisco Santana
Age 36 34
Height 5’9.5” 5’9”
Reach 69” 73.5”
Total Fights 45 34
Record 37-8 25-8-1
Knockouts 20 12

There are some pundits and fans who believe that this bout could end up being the fight of the night. I have to agree with this opinion.

These two fighters don’t shy away from action and continue to push forward even if it’s a fire fight. Santana acknowledged their similarities:

“I let people compare us. Essentially, it is that we do have a similar record, similar type of style. We both come forward, all action. So, I don’t know what he’s like outside of work, but inside the ring, I think that we are very similar.”

Santana enters this contest having lost four of his last five fights including two in a row. All four of those losses came via decision.

He lost to Jarrett Hurd in January, Abel Ramos in March 2019, Mahonri Montes in April 2017, and Jose Benavidez Jr. in July 2016.

Santana has never fought for a world title, but he has competed against world class talent as evident by some of his recent losses. Currently, Santana is not ranked in the Top 15 for any major sanctioning body.

Josesito Lopez echoed what Santana and pundits have said about this contest:

“Like in all of my fights, fans can expect action. I’m going up against a tough competitor who comes to fight every time. I’d recommend that fans don’t blink, because this fight could end at any moment. I’m just expecting an aggressive, tough fight. Santana is not an easy fight whatsoever. He’s a good fighter who’s given some of the top guys a run for their money.

Santana has fared well against “top guys,” but Lopez has actually fought in world title fights including against Keith Thurman last year and Andre Berto five years ago.

Currently, Lopez is ranked 9th in the WBC and could make a run at the winner of Spence vs Garcia next year if he can get two more wins.

Lopez is 4-1 in his last five fights with the lone loss coming to Keith Thurman via majority decision. He last fought against John Molina Jr. 15 months ago and won via 8th round KO.

Santana will have the reach advantage, but Lopez looks to be the better fighter at this stage of their respective careers. This bout could end via TKO/KO or it could go the full 10 rounds. It’s really hard to call since these two fighters are similar and will go to war on Saturday.

Additionally, both fighters have a puncher’s chance in this contest. With that said, I am leaning towards Lopez winning and making one last run at a world title fight in 2021.

Josesito Lopez vs Francisco Santana –Lopez (NA)

Sebastian Fundora vs Jorge Cota

  • Sebastian Fundora (NA)
  • Jorge Cota (NA)

As of this writing, there are no available odds for this super welterweight contest. With that in mind, I believe Sebastian Fundora will be a large betting favorite in this contest as he has been in his last handful of fights.

Jorge Cota was a favorite in his last contest, but has also been a large underdog in several fights over the last three years.

Fundora vs Cota Preview

Details Sebastian Fundora Jorge Cota
Age 22 32
Height 6’5.5” 5’11”
Reach 80” 73.5”
Total Fights 16 34
Record 15-0-1 30-4
Knockouts 10 27

This bout is shaping up to be a WBA super welterweight title eliminator fight as Jorge Cota is ranked 6th and the fast charging Sebastian Fundora is ranked 7th. The winner of this contest will certainly get a big Top 5 fight next year or possibly even move into title contention.

Jorge Cota is 2-2 in his last four fights. He’s won two in a row by crushing lesser opponents with TKO/KO wins. However, he did lose two fights in a row prior to this winning streak.

Those losses came against Jermell Charlo in June 2019 via 3rd round KO and to Jeison Rosario in April 2019 via split decision.

Cota has a lot of power, which is evident by 27 KOs in 30 pro wins. However, he is giving up a massive six inches in height and nearly seven inches in reach. Cota spoke about those disadvantages:

“The fact that he’s so tall and that his reach is so stunningly large made me work a lot on my movement, my lateral movement and in making my hips be able to rotate efficiently to be able to get inside and make it a close contact fight.

And the fact that I need to be able to make it a close range fight. And that way I can take advantage of my power. If I can get close and make it a blow-by-blow kind of fight where we are exchanging blows with our bodies close together, then I can take advantage of my power, but everything is on the hips.”

Fundora is unbeaten in his young career and is quickly rising up the rankings as one of the most promising prospects in this weight class.

He last fought in August and beat Nathaniel Gallimore via 6th round KO. Fundora has racked up numerous wins against other talented, young fighters but this weekend’s contest will be the toughest of his young career.

Cota is a veteran with knockout power and a significant experience advantage. Yet, Fundora isn’t worried about Cota’s power. In fact, he wants to see who hits harder:

“I welcome it. I welcome it. I fought power punchers before. This last guy, Gallimore, was a power puncher. So, I welcome all the power. On December 5, we’ll see who hits harder.”

Who Wins This Title Eliminator Fight?

Fundora has all of the tools to become a future world champ. And with his size and reach, he will be a tough challenge for any of the top fighters in the super welterweight division.

As for this weekend’s bout, I am going with Fundora to pick up the biggest win of his career to date. He will use his reach to keep Cota at the preferred range and set him up for some crushing shots.

Because Cota is a durable fighter, there’s a good chance he goes the distance. Yet, if online betting sites release a prop bet for this and the odds offered value, I would say that Fundora gets the stoppage in the latter rounds.

Regardless of the method, Fundora will come away as the victor on Saturday night. I expect big things for the 22 year old in 2021.

Sebastian Fundora vs Jorge Cota –Fundora (NA)

Errol Spence Jr. vs Danny Garcia

  • Errol Spence Jr. (-450)
  • Danny Garcia (+360)

The WBC and IBF welterweight champion Errol Spence Jr. comes into this contest as a sizable betting favorite with odds ranging from -400 to -500. He’s been a betting favorite in all of his fights for many years now. However, at just -400, these odds seem rather low.

Danny Garcia is a former world champ, but enters this main event PPV title fight as the underdog with odds ranging from +300 to +415. Garcia has been a betting favorite in his last four fights. He hasn’t been an underdog since March 2017 against Keith Thurman.

Spence Jr. vs Garcia Preview

Details Errol Spence Jr. Danny Garcia
Age 30 32
Height 5’9.5” 5’8”
Reach 72” 68.5”
Total Fights 26 38
Record 26-0 36-2
Knockouts 21 21

Despite being the underdog for the first time in almost four years, Garcia is very confident heading into this fight on Saturday:

“You know I say, I fight great all the time, but it’s definitely the energy (of being an underdog) I like. It’s the chip I like to have on my shoulder. It’s like I am proving myself all over again after so many world title fights and victories and big events and I have to prove myself again. That’s what keeps me going.”

Danny Garcia last fought in January and defeated Ivan Redkach via unanimous decision. Prior to that, his most recent fight was in April 2019 when he defeated Adrian Granados via 7th round KO.

He’s won two straight fights after losing two of three prior to the winning streak. Garcia fought Shawn Porter in September 2018 for the vacant WBC welterweight title, but lost via unanimous decision. Porter would go on to lose this belt to Errol Spence Jr. 15 months ago.

Garcia’s other loss came against Keith Thurman in March 2017 for the WBC welter weight title and the WBA super world welterweight title. Thurman lost the WBA belt to Manny Pacquiao last year.

Garcia is a former light welterweight champ and welterweight champ. He’s certainly going to be a huge test for Errol Spence Jr. on Saturday. Can Garcia win a world title for the 3rd time?

How Will Errol Spence Jr. Look in His Return to the Ring?.

This is the question on everyone’s mind. Last October, Spence was in a horrible car crash that almost cost him his life as he was ejected from his Ferrari. To this day, Spence doesn’t even remember the night of his crash. It was a miracle that he only had minor injuries.

Spence recognizes that he has a second chance on life and in the sport where he’s one of the best pound for pound fighters. Errol also had a son last month, which has given Spence a renewed lease on life.

Spence declares that he feels good and that this training camp went great. This will be the third straight time he headlines a PPV in a world title fight. It’s another opportunity that he isn’t taken for granted.

Furthermore, Spence isn’t taking his opponent for granted either. The undefeated world champ made the following comments about Danny Garcia:

“I picked Danny Garcia because he’s a tough opponent with a granite chin. He’s always in tough close fights. He’s going to bring the best out of me. If I took a tune-up fight, I wouldn’t be as focused or dedicated as I am right now. I know Danny’s dad is pushing him to take my belts in my hometown. So I’m staying focused to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

Spence won the IBF welterweight title in May 2017 by defeating Kell Brook via 11th round KO. He’s successfully defended the title four times heading into this weekend’s PPV fight.

Spence won the WBC welterweight title by defeating Shawn Porter 15 months ago. This will be the first time that he defends this belt.

How Long Will This Fight Last?

The Over/Under for this world title fight is set at 10.5 rounds:

  • Over 10.5 rounds (-315)
  • Under 10.5 rounds (+265)

In his last two world title fights, Spence went the distance in both of them including his bout against the smaller Mikey Garcia in March 2019. If he couldn’t put away Garcia or Porter then I don’t see him getting the knockout in this contest either.

Take the Over 10.5 rounds (-315) as three of Danny Garcia’s last five fights have gone the distance. Furthermore, his two pro losses have come via decision. He’s never been stopped in a fight.

How Long Will This Fight Last? –Over 10.5 rounds (-315)

Will This Fight Go the Distance?

As mentioned, Garcia has never been stopped in his career. Furthermore, Spence has never lost before in his career. Both men are built to go the full 12 rounds and I expect that to happen this weekend.

Will This Fight Go the Distance? –Yes (-278)

Who Wins This World Title Fight?

As you can see, I have already set the table for this contest to go the distance. That means 12 rounds of action and entertainment. With that in mind, Garcia’s odds to win via decision are listed at +450 and Spence’s odds for a decision victory are listed at -125.

The first few rounds will be telling. We will either see a sluggish Errol Spence Jr. or the world champ that comes out aggressive. If he’s sluggish or apprehensive then he will be in danger of losing.

However, I believe Spence will come out ready to fight. He will execute his game plan and start putting in the groundwork for a decision win from the opening round until the final round.

Spence is a better overall boxer, has the height and reach advantages, and is more athletic. This fight might be closer than his last two decision wins, but I see Spence taking home the unanimous decision victory. His odds of -125 for a decision win also provide the best value for this world title fight.

Who Wins This World Title Fight? –Spence Jr. (-450)

Spence wins via decision (-125)

Spence vs Garcia Fight Card

  • (C)Errol Spence Jr. vs Danny Garcia in a 12 round welterweight title fight
  • Sebastian Fundora vs Jorge Cota in a 12 round junior middleweight contest
  • Miguel Flores vs Eduardo Ramirez in a 12 round featherweight bout
  • Josesito Lopez vs Francisco Santana in a 10 round welterweight fight
  • Fernando Garcia vs Juan Tapia in an 8 round featherweight fight
  • Frank Martin vs TBA in an 8 round lightweight bout
  • Vito Mielnicki Jr. vs Steven Pulluaim in a 6 round welterweight contest
  • Burley Brooks vs Marco Delgado in a 6 round super middleweight fight

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …

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