Betting on UFC Fight Night 183 Prelims

UFC-Prelims-Purple

On Saturday, December 19th, the UFC will return to action from their Apex Center in Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night 183: Thompson vs Neal. However, before we check out the main card action, we must examine the preliminary card first.

As of this writing, UFC Fight Night 183’s preliminary card features eight bouts with the notable athletes such as Anthony Pettis, Karl Roberson, Sijara Eubanks, Pannie Kianzad, Deron Winn, Rick Glenn and more.

The featured bout of the prelims is a welterweight contest between #12 Anthony Pettis and Alex Morono as it was dropped from the main card down to this slot in the lineup. The UFC Fight Night 183 prelims begins at 4PM ET on ESPN+.

UFC betting sites have released their full slate of odds for the UFC Fight Night 183 preliminary lineup. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds, identify any UFC betting value, and crush these predictions.

Rick Glenn vs Carlton Minus

  • Rick Glenn (-325)
  • Carlton Minus (+265)
  • Over (-210)/Under (+175) 2.5 rounds

Carlton Minus made his UFC debut in August, but came up short as he lost via unanimous decision to Matthew Semelsberger. He was unbeaten heading into the PFL two years ago, but has now dropped two of his last three bouts.

Seven of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 3-1 when going the distance.

Glenn joined the UFC over four years ago and has gone 3-3 inside the octagon. He does have wins over Bermudez and Tucker, but lost his last fight via unanimous decision to Kevin Aguilar 25 months ago. This will be Glenn’s first fight in over two years.

Glenn had hip surgery during that time off and also changed fight camps. If that wasn’t enough, Glenn also has decided to go up in weight as cutting down to 145 pounds was becoming too difficult:

“I always told myself if I ever miss weight, I’m going up a weight class. I pushed it to the very end. I’ve gone through this weight cut for years. I’ve been at ’45 for a long time and it just caught up to me. It was too much.”

15 of his 21 pro wins have come via stoppage with 11 by way of TKO/KO. He’s 6-4-1 when going the distance.

I like this fight to go Over 2.5 rounds (-210) and to go the full distance (-180). Minus has gone the distance in four of his last five fights including two in a row. Glenn has gone the distance in seven straight fights including all six trips inside the octagon.

As for the winner, I like Glenn to make a successful comeback to the octagon. I believe that he will pressure Minus, land more punches, and find a takedown or two which will help Glenn win via unanimous decision (-105), which offers the best betting value as well.

Rick Glenn vs Carlton Minus –Glenn (-325)

Over 2.5 rounds (-210)

Fight goes the distance (-180)

Glenn wins via decision (-105)

Cody Durden vs Jimmy Flick

  • Cody Durden (+130)
  • Jimmy Flick (-150)
  • Over (-125)/Under (+105) 1.5 rounds

This bout was supposed to take place at UFC on ESPN 19, but it was postponed because Durden was ill.

Cody Durden made his UFC debut in August and fought to a draw against Chris Gutierrez. The outcome extends his unbeaten streak to eight fights. He also made that fight on short notice. Now, Durden has had a proper training camp to prepare for his upcoming trip inside the octagon.

10 of his 11 pro wins have come via stoppage with five apiece for TKO/KO and submissions. He’s 1-1-1 when going the distance.

Durden is very confident heading into this bout despite being a betting underdog. Not only does he believe that he will get the TKO, but he also sees this as a step towards his ultimate goal which is a UFC championship:

“I know he is really game opponent and good at submissions. You have 13 submissions you know you are good. But, I’m better all-around and I plan to prove that when I TKO his a*s. It is one step in the right direction. My goal is to fight for the belt and have the belt around my waist. Just keep working but I don’t know what it will do from here.”

Flick enters this weekend’s bout having earned a contract from his appearance on DWCS in September where he beat Nate Smith via 3rd round submission. Flick has won three straight fights and five of his last six. All of those victories have come via submission.

In fact, 13 of Flick’s 15 pro wins have come via submission. He’s 2-1 when going the distance. Four of his five pro losses have come via TOP/KO.

This is going to be an entertaining fight. Either we get a solid grappling contest or we see Durden finding a brutal TKO/KO win.

I happen to believe we will get a grappling battle because Durden has a wrestling background and Flick is a submission specialist. With that said, I do see Flick getting the submission (+135) win in this contest. For Durden, one of his two pro losses have come via submission.

I do not see this fight going the distance (-260) as someone will get the stoppage. With that said, we should probably go Over 1.5 rounds (-125) as these two men will jockey for position on the mat. I think the Over offers the best value for this contest.

Cody Durden vs Jimmy Flick –Flick (-150)

Over 1.5 rounds (-125)

Fight ends inside the distance (-260)

Flick wins inside the distance (+110)

Flick wins via submission (+135)

Tafon Nchukwi vs Jamie Pickett

  • Tafon Nchukwi (-300)
  • Jamie Pickett (+250)
  • Over (-115)/Under (-105) 1.5 rounds

Tafon Nchukwi will make his UFC debut this weekend after earning a contract on DWCS in September when he defeated Al Matavao via 2nd round KO.

All four of his pro wins have come via TKO/KO and he’s never gone to the third round in his pro career. Tafon went 13-1 in his Muay Thai career prior to turning to MMA.

The Cameroon striker hopes to be the next UFC star as he dedicates this fight to his country:

 “It would mean a lot, too. Especially to my people, who are always watching and giving me support. I’m definitely using this platform to definitely show out for my country and my people. I’ll let them know we out here. … We’re coming to take over. We’re born fighters.”

Jamie Pickett also makes his UFC debut this weekend after his third fight on DWCS. He lost in his first two DWCS appearances in 2017 and 2019. However, he turned things around and defeated Jhonoven Pati via 2nd round TKO in August.

Pickett has won four of his last five fights. Nine of his 11 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 2-2 when going the distance. His other two pro losses have come via submission.

As for his upcoming opponent, Pickett had the following comments:

“I don’t know anything about him. I don’t look at my opponents; I don’t like it. I let my team look at my opponents and I just train accordingly. They teach me what to do and I believe in what they’re saying; plus, I trust my reactions and my speed to be able to nullify whatever they’re doing. I’m going to go in there and be me, fight him how I want to fight him. I’m not worried about what he’s going to do.”

I think that Pickett should be worried because Tafon will win this contest. I really like the raw talent of Nchukwi and I believe he has the striking power to end this fight in the 2nd round via TKO/KO.

I see Tafon pressuring Pickett as he closes the distance. Once he gets inside, Nchukwi will either push Pickett to the fence or pummel him inside the proverbial phone booth. I don’t see any prop bet in this fight offering decent value.

Tafon Nchukwi vs Jamie Pickett –Nchukwi (-300)

Under 1.5 rounds (-105)

Fight ends inside the distance (-300)

Nchukwi wins via TKO/KO (-155)

Drako Rodriguez vs Aiemann Zahabi

  • Drako Rodriguez (-190)
  • Aiemann Zahabi (+165)
  • Over (-225)/Under (+185) 2.5 rounds

Aiemann Zahabi started off his career on fire with six straight 1st round stoppages. That earned him a UFC contract which he debuted in February 2019 and won via unanimous decision. Unfortunately, he’s dropped his last two fights in a row and now has a 1-2 record in the UFC.

Zahabi last fought in May 2019 and lost to Vince Morales via unanimous decision. This is just his second fight in the last three years. Six of his seven pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO. He’s 1-1 when going the distance.

Rodriguez earned his UFC opportunity by winning on DWCS in September where he defeated Leomana Martinez via 1st round submission. Dana White was not only impressed by Drako’s skills, but also liked the kid’s personality as well.

Drako has won three straight fights as he spent the majority of his career in KOTC. They were looking at having him fight on UFC 253, but Rodriguez didn’t have a passport. Now that he’s all situated, the UFC decided to book him for this card instead.

In Drako’s lone pro loss, it was a 5th round TKO in a KOTC title fight against Tony Gravely. Where Gravely was able to wear down and grind out Rodriguez, Zahabi does not have that skillset to repeat Gravely’s performance.

Get out your UFC betting apps and take the over 2.5 rounds (-120) and for the first to go the distance (+100), which I think offers the best value for this fight.

Drako Rodriguez vs Aiemann Zahabi –Rodriguez (-190)

Over 2.5 rounds (-225)

Fight goes the distance (-195)

Rodriguez wins via decision (+125)

Deron Winn vs Antonio Arroyo

  • Deron Winn (+135)
  • Antonio Arroyo (-155)
  • Over (-120)/Under (+100) 2.5 rounds

Do you remember when Deron Winn was supposed to be a mini version of Daniel Cormier? Well, that all ended 14 months ago when he lost via spit decision to Darren Stewart. Winn then lost to GMIII via 3rd round submission in March.

But, that wasn’t the worst of it. Winn was suspended for nine months due to testing positive for amphetamines after the March fight. With two losses in a row and a failed drug test, Winn could be fighting just to keep his spot on the UFC roster.

Four of his six pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 2-1 when going the distance.

Antonio Arroyo hasn’t fought in 13 months. He was supposed to fight in November, but he ran into a bit of bad luck, which was not of his doing.

Arroyo was scheduled to face Andreas Michalidis, but he withdrew from the fight. Then Eryk Anders agreed to fill in, but that contest fell through as Anders had to withdraw due to medical issues. Finally, after 13 months, Arroyo will step back inside the octagon for only the second time in his career.

Arroyo made his UFC debut in November 2019 and lost via unanimous decision to Andre Muniz. He earned the octagon appearance by winning two fights in a row on DWCS in 2018 and 2019. Arroyo has won five of his last six pro fights.

Eight of his nine pro wins have come via stoppage with four apiece for TKO/KO and submission. He’s 1-1 when going the distance. Arroyo will have an eight inch height and 3.5 inch reach advantage over Winn this weekend.

This is a tough matchup for Winn. Arroyo’s length is going to be a huge problem. Winn will have to come out aggressive and close the distance right away. Winn will not be able to last the full 15 minutes with Arroyo if it’s a standup battle.

Fortunately for Deron, Arroyo has showed in previous fights that he can be taken down. Yet, he also showed that he has the ability to scramble back to his feet.

The smart money is leaning towards Arroyo winning this fight, but I am going with the betting upset. I believe desperation and a need to prove that he’s better than a failed drug test will propel Winn to a decision victory over Arroyo.

Take the Over 2.5 rounds (-120) and for the fight to go the distance (+100), which I think offers the best value for this fight.

Deron Winn vs Antonio Arroyo –Winn (+135)

Over 2.5 rounds (-120)

Fight goes the distance (+100)

Winn wins via decision (+255)

Karl Roberson vs Dalcha Lungiambula

  • Karl Roberson (-255)
  • Dalcha Lungiambula (+215)
  • Over (-135)/Under (+115) 1.5 rounds

This bout was originally scheduled for UFC 256, but the fight had to be pushed back to this weekend’s event due to Roberson testing positive for covid.

Dalcha Lungiambula won five straight fights and earned a UFC opportunity in June 2019 where he defeated Dequan Townsend via 3rd round TKO. He then took on Magomed Ankalaev 13 months ago and lost via 3rd round KO.

Now, Lungiambula looks to rebound from his first loss since 2015. He will also step inside the octagon for the first time in 13 months. Six of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 4-0 when going the distance in a fight.

Roberson last fought in June where he came in overweight and ended up losing via 1st round submission to Marvin Vettori. The loss dropped Roberson’s UFC record to 4-3 overall since joining the promotion three years ago.

Six of his nine pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. He’s 3-0 when going the distance. All three of his pro losses have come via submission.

This is going to be a competitive fight. However, I do expect Roberson to come away with the win. I also expect it to go Over 1.5 rounds (-135), which I believe offers the best betting value. I actually think that this contest will go the full 15 minutes (+175).

Roberson should pick up the decision win (+260) as he is the more polished striker and has enough of a ground game to neutralize anything that Lungiambula throws at him.

Karl Roberson vs Dalcha Lungiambula –Roberson (-255)

Over 1.5 rounds (-135)

Fight goes the distance (+175)

Roberson wins via decision (+260)

Pannie Kianzad vs Sijara Eubanks

  • Pannie Kianzad (+140)
  • Sijara Eubanks (-160)
  • Over (-370)/Under (+310) 2.5 rounds

This women’s fight features two Top 15 ranked bantamweights.

The 14th ranked Kianzad joined the UFC in 2018 and made it all the way to the finale of TUF 28 before losing via 2nd round submission to Macy Chiasson. Since then, she’s gone 3-1 inside the octagon.

Kianzad has won two straight fights, both by decision, and last competed in July when she defeated Bethe Correia via unanimous decision. 10 of her 13 pro wins have come via decision. She’s 10-2 when going the distance.

With four fights left on her UFC contract, Kianzad is hoping to move up in the rankings, get a new contract when this one is up, and hopefully get a title fight against Amanda Nunes who Pannie believes is the greatest of all-time:

“I’m not doing this to… like come to the top ten and hoping for a better contract next time. I’m doing it until the end, and then I’m gone, you know? I’m hoping to, after these four fights that I signed for, that the next contract will be for a different kind of contract, like for a title fight included.”

The 13th ranked Eubanks will compete for the 4th time in 2020. She’s gone 2-1 so far, with wins over Sarah Moras and Julia Avila by decision.

Eubanks took another fight two weeks after beating Avila, but ended up losing to Ketlen Vieira via unanimous decision in September. Four of her six pro wins have come via decision. However, she’s 4-5 when going the distance.

It’s clear, this fight will go the full 15 minutes (-325) and over 2.5 rounds (-370) so look to bet the over at UFC betting sites. For Eubanks, nine of her 11 pro fights have gone the distance including eight in a row. She has never been stopped in a fight.

For Kianzad, 12 of her 18 pro fights have gone the distance including four in a row. These two competitors have combined for 21 decision outcomes in 29 pro contests.

As for the winner, I am going with the upset. I think Kianzad’s length will be too much for Eubanks to overcome by time it’s all said and done. I expect Pannie to fight from a distance and use her reach advantage masterfully. I’m taking Kianzad to win via split decision.

Pannie Kianzad vs Sijara Eubanks –Kianzad (+140)

Over 2.5 rounds (-370)

Fight goes the distance (-325)

Kianzad wins via decision (+190)

Anthony Pettis vs Alex Morono

  • Anthony Pettis (-230)
  • Alex Morono (+190)
  • Over (-200)/Under (+170) 2.5 rounds

Right now, it’s unclear if this fight will be on the main card or the preliminary card. As of this writing, UFC.com has this bout as the featured fight of the prelims and it looks to remain that way unless one of the main card fights end up being called off.

Morono is unranked as a welterweight and has a 7-3 record inside the octagon. He last competed in November where he defeated Rhys McKee via unanimous decision. However, he started off the year with a 1st round KO loss to Kalinn Williams which snapped a three fight win streak.

Despite the up and down 2020, Morono remains confident and believe he will go on Saturday night and finish off Anthony Pettis then go on to fight against other top names in the division:

“For a strategy for this fight, I keep my answer the same, I’m going for the finish. Whether it be the first round or late in the fight, I’m going for the finish. I plan on setting a high pace and putting pressure on him and inflicting damage. My goal is to go out there and win this fight by stoppage. If I achieve that, it sets me up for a fight against guys like Nate Diaz or Cowboy Cerrone. The fact I’m fighting Pettis will allow me to fight these other dudes. This just cements future big fights so I need to win this one.”

11 of his 18 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. He’s 6-4 when going the distance.

Anthony Pettis agreed to take this fight against Morono on less than one month’s notice. However, the former UFC lightweight champ says he feels great at 170 pounds and is really looking to get consecutive wins for the first time since 2014:

“I have these tools in my mental game and I’m eager to put them to use. I’m making real progress as a martial artist and it’s felt so good to reinvent myself. I’m not obsessing about getting back to a belt, or getting that next spot. This is my first chance to get back-to-back wins in a while. Let’s start back over, take this one step at a time. I feel amazing at 170 pounds. This opportunity opened up and I couldn’t say no to it.”

Pettis is 3-3 in his last six fights, but 1-2 in his last three. He’s already competed twice in 2020 where he lost to Diego Ferreira in January via 2nd round submission and won against Donald Cerrone via unanimous decision in May.

Pettis has fought so many of the UFC’s top stars in his career that it’s hard to believe his HOF resume. Yet, at age 33, Pettis continues to compete and evolve as a fighter. He’s hoping to get back to back wins with a victory over Morono on Saturday.

18 of his 23 pro wins have come via stoppage with 11 by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-6 when going the distance.

I see this fight going Over 2.5 rounds (-200) and the full distance (-170). For Morono, he’s gone the distance in four of his last six contests. Pettis has gone to a decision in two of his last three bouts.

Once with the judges, I believe that Pettis will come out the winner via unanimous decision. He’s the more complete fighter between the two and I just don’t see Morono having the answers for what Pettis brings to the table. Pettis winning via decision offers the best value at +135 odds.

Anthony Pettis vs Alex Morono –Pettis (-230)

Over 2.5 rounds (-200)

Fight goes the distance (-170)

Pettis wins via decision (+135)

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …

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