On Saturday, February 27th, the heavyweights will be in the main event for the second straight week as Jairzinho Rozenstruik takes on Cyril Gane at UFC Fight Night 186 live from the APEX Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, beginning at 8PM ET.
The six fight main card features many notable names like Magomed Ankalaev, Montana De La Rosa, Pedro Munhoz vs Jimmie Rivera 2, Angela Hill, Ashley Yoder, and Alex Caceres.
In our preliminary card betting preview, we detailed all of the changes to this card. Since that article, there has been another change as Alex Oliveira will now fight newcomer Ramazan Kuramagomedov in a welterweight clash most likely in the prelims.
Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC Fight Night 186 main card odds, identify any betting value, and force these predictions to submit to an armbar.
Kevin Croom enters this bout as a sizable underdog He’s on a four fight unbeaten streak that spanned three different promotions including Bellator and the UFC.
Croom made his octagon debut last September on a few days’ notice and defeated the favored Roosevelt Roberts via 1st round submission and earned a fight night bonus.
Unfortunately, a few months later the fight was ruled a no contest because he tested positive for marijuana.
Croom made the following comments about the result change and moving forward:
“[Expletive] it, I was upset for about five minutes and then I found out I was keeping my bonus, so who cares? It’s all some antics, I was smoking weed before I knew I had a fight, which was two days before. Whatever, I won, everyone knows I won, he [Roberts] knows I won, I got paid like I won, so whatever, I’ll never consider it a no contest. That fight changed my life. It is what it is and on to the next one.”
16 of his 21 pro wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of submission. He’s 5-4 when going the distance.
Over a three year period, Caceres had dropped five of seven fights and looked on his way out of the UFC. Yet, since then, “Bruce Leeroy” has gone 5-2 and enters this contest having won three straight bouts over Peterson, Hooper, and Springer.
His last fight came in August 2020 where he beat Austin Springer via 1st round submission. The other two wins in this streak came via decision.
Nine of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. He’s 8-4 when going the distance.
Both men are veterans of the sport and have the ability to stand and strike or go to the mat and grapple. I think since these men have combined for 16 submission wins, we will see more of a grappling heavy contest.
With that said, I believe that both men should be able to nullify the other unless someone makes a big mistake. So on my UFC betting app, I’ll be taking the fight going the full 15 minutes (-165) and Over 2.5 rounds (-185).
Once with the judges, I like Caceres to squeak out the win (-105) via decision which also offers the best value. 12 of his 29 pro bouts have gone the distance including four of his last six.
I do believe that Croom is a live dog in this fight. So, if you are looking for a potential upset candidate then this bout should suffice.
Alex Caceres vs Kevin Croom –Caceres (-210)
Over 2.5 rounds (-185)
Fight goes the distance (-165)
Caceres wins via decision (-105)
Angela Hill vs Ashley Yoder
Angela Hill (-360)
Ashley Yoder (+300)
Over (-410)/Under (+330) 2.5 rounds
This is a rematch between the two competitors as they first fought at TUF 25 Finale in July 2017 where Hill won via unanimous decision. This bout was also added to UFC Fight Night 186 within the last week.
Since their first fight, Yoder has gone 3-3. Her last bout came in November where she beat Miranda Granger via unanimous decision. The win snapped a two fight losing streak.
Four of her pro wins have come via submission and the other four have come via decision. She’s 4-6 when going the distance and has never been stopped in a fight.
Yoder made the following comments about the rematch:
“It’s my first rematch so that’s exciting. It’s been four years since we’ve fought. We’ve both grown a lot since then, and I’m just excited to go in there and show what I’ve been working on. I think this is a great time for a rematch, I think this is a great fight for both of us, and for me, I’m coming in guns blazing. There’s nothing to lose for me so I’m just excited to be out there and get some time on the mat again and get to do what I love.”
Hill has gone 5-6 since their first bout, is 7-9 in the UFC, and enters this weekend’s event having lost two straight contests, which snapped a three fight win streak.
Hill fought last September and loss via split decision to Michelle Waterson. She also lost to Claudia Gadelha in May 2020 via split decision.
Five of her 12 pro wins have come via TKO/KO and the other seven have come via decision. She is 7-7 when going the distance.
Despite losing two straight, and falling below .500 in the UFC, Hill isn’t wavering under pressure or losing sight of her goals:
“It’s taken a lot longer than I had initially thought it would. But I’ve stayed passionate and I’ve always improved, so I definitely feel like my time is coming. The last couple of years, you’ve seen a lot of the older athletes kind of run over the young guys and shine, so I definitely have a lot of hope for the future and I’m taking that pressure and turning it into diamonds.”
Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way first. This bout will go Over 2.5 rounds (-410) and the distance (-355) as the two have combined to tally 24 decisions.
Yoder has gone the distance in eight straight fights which includes her entire run in the UFC. Hill has gone to the scorecards in three straight contests.
I believe Hill is the better athlete and overall fighter. Her striking skills will be the difference in this fight where she will end up outscoring Yoder with the judges. Take Hill to win via unanimous decision (-165).
There’s no betting value with this fight.
Angela Hill vs Ashley Yoder –Hill (-360)
Over 2.5 rounds (-410)
Fight goes the distance (-355)
Hill wins via decision (-165)
Pedro Munhoz vs Jimmie Rivera
Pedro Munhoz (+130)
Jimmie Rivera (-150)
Over (-300)/Under (+250) 2.5 rounds
Like the Hill vs Yoder bout, this bantamweight contest is a rematch as well. The two first fought in November 2015 and Jimmie Rivera won that contest via split decision.
Since their first encounter, Munhoz 7-3 inside the octagon with win streaks of four and three fights. However, he enters this bout on a two fight losing streak having dropped consecutive bouts to Sterling and Edgar.
Munhoz went through a five round war with Frankie Edgar in August 2020 and lost via split decision. He lost to Aljamain Sterling via unanimous decision in June 2019.
13 of his 18 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission. He’s 5-5 when going the distance.
Bantamweight clash between 8th ranked Pedro Munhoz🇧🇷(18-5) and 9th ranked Jimmie Rivera🇺🇲(23-4) has been rebooked for the February 27th Fight Night card after originally being scheduled for UFC 258.
For Rivera, he’s gone 5-3 since their first matchup. He’s gone 2-3 in his last five bouts. The three losses have come against the top fighters in the division: Moraes, Sterling and Yan.
Rivera last competed in July 2020 and beat Cody Stamann via decision. The victory snapped a two fight losing streak.
Six of his 23 pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO. He’s 17-3 when going the distance. The lone stoppage defeat came against Moraes via TKO/KO.
Rivera commented on his future in the division including this weekend’s contest and the upcoming championship fight:
“I think that I gave Peter Yan his hardest fight who is the champ right now. I do think there is a run in me but it is one fight at a time and Pedro is a tough SOB. I’m expecting a war and I’ll try and get the finish if I can. In our first fight, I hit him with everything and he just kept coming forward. As far as the title fight, I think if Sterling can get the fight to the ground, he can win it and if Yan can keep it on the feet and stop the takedowns, he will win the fight. I think it’s pretty cut and dry.”
Also like the Hill vs Yoder bout above, this contest will go Over 2.5 rounds (-300) and the full distance (-260). Their first bout went the full distance and I don’t see why this one won’t either. The two men have combined to go the distance in 30 pro fights.
Rivera has gone the distance in eight of his last nine bouts. Munhoz has gone the distance in four of his last six contests.
The winner of this fight should be in line for a Top 10 divisional matchup and another opportunity to make a run at the title. The loser will fall down in the rankings and be considered almost like a gatekeeper to the young and talented fighters on the rise.
Munhoz has a chin made of granite as he can take a beating and keep on coming. Rivera knows this and will try to strike at a distance. Additionally, if he mixes in a few takedowns, Rivera could win rounds since their striking battle will be close to even.
I am going with Rivera to win this rematch. I think he can duplicate the success from their first fight and squeak out another decision win (+100), which offers the best value for this contest.
Pedro Munhoz vs Jimmie Rivera –Rivera (-150)
Over 2.5 rounds (-300)
Fight goes the distance (-260)
Rivera wins via decision (+100)
Montana De La Rosa vs Mayra Bueno Silva
Montana De La Rosa (+120)
Mayra Bueno Silva (-140)
Over (-235)/Under (+195) 2.5 rounds
Montana De La Rosa (MDLR), has dropped two of her last three contests including her last fight which came in September to Vivian Araujo via decision. Prior to that stretch, she began her UFC career going 3-0. Eight of her 11 pro wins have come via submission. She’s 3-4 when going the distance.
The 26 year old American talked about how she’s getting more comfortable inside the octagon:
“It’s just really been about solidifying my place (in this division) and realizing this is what I’m meant to do. Each and every time I get in the Octagon, I get more and more comfortable with it. The first few times, it was really nerve-racking and I had to go through all that mental adversity, but now I feel like that is where I need to be and I’m getting more and more comfortable being in there.”
Mayra Bueno Silva earned her UFC contract with a 1st round submission win on DWCS in August 2018. Since then, she’s gone 2-1 inside the octagon. The lone loss was to Maryna Moroz via decision, which was the first defeat in her career.
Silva last fought in September and beat Mara Romero Borella. In fact, Borella lost to De La Rosa seven months prior. Six of her seven pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. She’s 1-1- when going the distance.
Both competitors have a solid ground game with 13 combined submission wins between them. More than likely, they will nullify each other’s grappling strengths. I also don’t see either competitor scoring a knockout victory in this contest.
This fight will go Over 2.5 rounds (-235) and the full distance (-195). MDLR has gone to three straight decision outcomes and went 1-2 in them.
I am taking De La Rosa to edge out Silva and win this bout via split decision. I think she will outwork Bueno and take the final round.
The value for this contest is with the moneylines for each fighter.
Montana De La Rosa vs Mayra Bueno Silva –De La Rosa (+120)
Over 2.5 rounds (-235)
Fight goes the distance (-195)
De La Rosa wins via decision (+175)
Nikita Krylov vs Magomed Ankalaev
Nikita Krylov (+290)
Magomed Ankalaev (-350)
Over (-150)/Under (+130) 1.5 rounds
Krylov has done two stints with the UFC in his pro career. The first run he went 6-3 and then left the promotion. He returned in September 2018 and has gone 2-2 since then, which brings his overall octagon record to 2-2.
Those two losses were to Blachowicz and Teixeira who both are ranked at the top of the division as Jan is the champion. Krylov doesn’t make any excuses for these losses. Instead, he feels they helped him grow as a fighter:
“I really don’t like to make excuses, but with each of my last three defeats in the UFC, I can tell you why I lost. Those losses gave me experience and understanding of what needs to be done next.”
Krylov last fought 11 months ago and defeated Johnny Walker via unanimous decision. 26 of his 27 pro wins have come via stoppage with 15 by way of submission. He’s 1-1 when going the distance.
Magomed Ankalaev has just wrapped up a pair of grudge fights against Ion Cutelaba that featured some bad blood between them and plenty of trash talking. He won both of those bouts and enters this contest on a five fight win streak.
The lone loss of his career came in his UFC debut where he suffered a submission defeat to Paul Craig. Nine of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage. He’s 5-0 when going the distance.
Combined, these men have only gone the distance in seven of their 49 combined pro fights. So, go with the fight to end inside the distance (-195).
The Over/Under 1.5 rounds is tricky. Both men are finishers as Ankalaev can end a contest with his powerful strikes and Krylov can stop a bout with his slick submissions. I’m taking the Over 1.5 rounds (-150) as I can see this going into the 3rd round (-105).
As for the winner, I am going with Magomed Ankalaev to win inside the distance (-115) and to do so via TKO/KO (-105). He will defend the takedown and force this into a standup battle where he has the striking and power advantages.
I like the value with Ankalaev winning inside the distance and via TKO/KO. Both are much better options than his moneyline.
Nikita Krylov vs Magomed Ankalaev –Ankalaev (-350)
Over 1.5 rounds (-150)
Fight ends inside the distance (+160)
Ankalaev wins inside the distance (-115)
Ankalaev wins via TKO/KO (-105)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Cyril Gane
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+225)
Cyril Gane (-265)
Over (-210)/Under (+175) 1.5 rounds
Rozenstruik joined the UFC two years ago and started off 4-0 with all four wins coming via KO. He ran into Francis Ngannou nine months ago and lost via 1st round KO. Rozenstruik was able to bounce back last August with a 2nd round TKO win.
He’s now 5-1 in the UFC with all five wins via TKO/KO. 10 of his 11 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 1-0 when going the distance.
Rozenstruik recognizes that his opponent is the favorite in this contest. Yet, he’s not worried about it because he believes that it will be his hand raised after the contest is over:
“He’s the favorite. Everyone thinks he has a good chance against me, and now it’s my turn to prove them wrong and go in there and put him down. Do what I do. It doesn’t bother me in any kind of way. It’s fighting and everybody has their favorite fighters. I’m ready to show them why I’m the favorite and why I deserve to be at the top. It wasn’t given to me. I earned it, and I’m ready to keep my place and move forward up in the rankings until I get a shot at the title.”
Gane is undefeated in his career and joined the UFC in August 2019 where he won via 1st round submission over Raphael Pessoa.
He’s gone 4-0 in the octagon and picked up the biggest fight of his career in December when he beat Junior dos Santos via 2nd round TKO. JDS also lost to Rozenstruik in August 2020.
Six of his seven pro wins have come via stoppage with three victories apiece for submission and TKO/KO. He’s 1-0 when going the distance.
I don’t see this fight lasting very long. Either Gane gets it to the mat and forces a submission or he stands and strikes until Rozenstruik knocks him out. Take the fight to end inside the distance (-255) and Under 1.5 rounds (+175).
My favorite wager for this contest is for the fight not to start round 3 at +110 odds. That’s great value for a prop bet where these two guys have gone to the 3rd round or longer in four of their combined 19 pro fights.
As for the winner, I like Rozenstruik to pick up the win. He’s the more dangerous striker and I believe Gane will make a mistake that costs him this fight. Don’t blink because this bout will be over in a hurry. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Gane.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Cyril Gane –Rozenstruik (+225)
Under 1.5 rounds (+175)
Fight ends inside the distance (-255)
Fight won’t start round 3 (+110)
Rozenstruik wins inside the distance (+295)
Rozenstruik wins via TKO/KO (+315)
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …