2021 Golden Globes Awards Odds & Picks

Goldenglobes2021

The 2021 Golden Globe awards for excellence in movies and television take place on Sunday, February 28. As usual, it figures to be an unpredictable night, with a few upset winners sprinkled in with the sure things. We’ll help you make money from the Golden Globe awards with this in-depth betting preview so that you can make your prop bets with confidence.

No awards show is quite like the Golden Globes, in the way that mixes up television and the movies into one grand affair. You might not realize it, but you can wager on all the action. It’s a simple process: bet on who you think will win a specific award and win money if your selection was correct.

In the following article, we’ll tell you everything you need to know about betting on the 2021 Golden Globes. We’ll go over all the big awards, talking about both the favorites and those picks that could provide some value for you if you get them right. Finally, we’ll give you our picks so that you can use this page as your Golden Globes betting cheat sheet.

How the Odds Work for Golden Globes Betting

If you’re new to gambling online with prop bets, you should have an understanding of what the odds mean before signing up to wager. The nominees you see listed below all have a number attached to them that is known as the moneyline. A moneyline helps oddmakers ensure even betting across all possible choices.

The moneyline is based on a base unit of 100:

  • If the number has a minus sign before it, you must bet that amount to win $100 in profit.
  • If the number has a plus sign before it, you must bet $100 to win that amount

You can actually bet any amount you want on the 2021 Golden Globes. The moneyline just sets the ratio of money bet to money earned. For example, if a nominee is listed as +200, it means you’re getting $200 for every $100 bet, which in turn means you’re getting $2 for every $1 bet.

78th Golden Globe Awards Betting Odds

Best Picture – Drama

  • Nomadland: -200
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7: +125
  • Mank: +600
  • Promising Young Woman: +900
  • The Father: +2000

The Favorites:

Nomadland has been dominating early awards ceremonies in a year that was light on movie releases. It will get a stiff challenge from The Trial of the Chicago 7, a star-studded true-life story. There doesn’t seem to be much separation between these two at the top.

The Value Plays:

Mank would feel better as an Academy Award pick, since it is about the movie business. Promising Young Woman will get some attention as perhaps the boldest of the nominees. At 9 to 1, you’re certainly getting good odds for it.

The Bet:

Since Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 seem so close, it seems wise to go with the one with the better odds. In other words, put your bet on Trial.

Winner –Trial of the Chicago 7 (+125)

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy

  • Hamilton: +100
  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: +100
  • The Prom: +250
  • Palm Springs: +1200
  • Music: +1800

The Favorites:

It seems odd to think of Hamilton as a movie, as exhilarating as it was to watch. The second Borat film received a lot of attention but most agreed that the first film was funnier. And The Prom, like so much of Ryan Murphy’s work, was polarizing.

The Value Plays:

Palm Springs is the kind of movie that makes the Golden Globes worthwhile. It was an utter charmer, and yet you likely won’t see it getting nominations for the Oscars. Those 12 to 1 odds are mighty appealing.

The Bet:

Since all of the favorites have some issues, this feels like the place to go for a long shot. Look for Palm Springs to be the surprise of the evening and go for that big profit potential.

Winner –Palm Springs (+1200)

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

  • Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom): -900
  • Anthony Hopkins (The Father): +500
  • Gary Oldman (Mank): +850
  • Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal): +900
  • Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian): +1500

The Favorites:

This is not just about awarding an incendiary talent who has passed away too young. If you watch Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, you’ll know that this was going to be Boseman’s big moment regardless. Hopkins is the only one even in the betting ballpark with him, but he shouldn’t be a threat.

The Value Plays:

In another year, Oldman’s turn as the brilliant yet self-destructive screenwriter of Citizen Kane might have bagged him a win. And Ahmed also deserves better for his role as a heavy metal drummer suffering hearing loss. But not this year.

The Bet:

There is obviously no betting value in taking Boseman. But there is also little to no chance that anyone upsets him, so either skip this bet or accept the small profit.

Winner –Chadwick Boseman (-900)

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy

  • Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm): -300
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton): +250
  • Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield): +650
  • Andy Samberg (Palm Springs): +850
  • James Corden (The Prom): +1000

The Favorites:

Cohen is poised to have a big Globes night, as he has a serious chance to win two major acting awards. Miranda rocketed to stardom with his turn as Alexander Hamilton. But, again, it just feels weird to award Hamilton in any way as a movie, when that’s not at all what it was.

The Value Plays:

We’ve already told you about the merits of Palm Springs. And much of that is due to Samberg, who pulled off his usual absurd humor but also exhibited some real soulfulness as well, a la a classic Bill Murray role. He is definitely a threat here.

The Pick:

All things being equal, Cohen is the more likely to win here. But Samberg has enough of a shot that you’d be wiser going with his 8 ½ to 1 value instead of Cohen, who is at 1 to 3.

Winner –Andy Samberg (+850)

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

  • Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom): +100
  • Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman): +250
  • Frances McDormand (Nomadland): +325
  • Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman): +1400
  • Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday): +1500

The Favorites:

This is a three-handed affair. Davis is the favorite and she was a force of nature as a tempestuous blues singer, but you could argue hers was a supporting role. McDormand can certainly add another award to her shelf, but watch out for Mulligan, who played against type in brilliant fashion.

The Value Plays:

The two long shots here really don’t have a shot. If you are a long shot player and insist, go with Day. Playing a historical figure gives her a better chance than Kirby.

The Pick

It comes down to a tight race between Davis and Mulligan. Mulligan has the slightly better value, so that should be your bet in this race.

Winner –Carey Mulligan (+250)

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy

  • Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm): -500
  • Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit): +350
  • Anna Taylor-Joy (Emma): +1000
  • Rosamund Pike (I Care A Lot): +1400
  • Kate Hudson (Music): +2000

The Favorites:

Bakalova has the chance to go from unknown to major award winner in the blink of an eye. It doesn’t hurt that she was a part of perhaps the most talked-about scene in movies this year. Pfeiffer is closest in the betting and got wonderful reviews, but the movie didn’t make a dent.

The Value Plays:

Female actresses taking on Jane Austen heroines could always be a factor. This is especially true with Taylor-Joy, who has all kinds of buzz anyway thanks to The Queen’s Gambit.

Could this be a way for the Globes to reward her twice?

The Bet:

This is not a great category to bet, because Bakalova feels risky at 1 to 5, yet none of the other actresses seem like a big threat. If you must, go with a small amount on Pfeiffer, who could get the vote of those wanting to reward an incredible career.

Winner –Michelle Pfeiffer (+350)

Best Director – Motion Picture

  • Chloe Zhoa (Nomadland): -650
  • David Fincher (Mank): +400
  • Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7): +550
  • Regina King (One Night in Miami): +1800
  • Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman): +2000

The Favorites:

There is another huge favorite here, which puts the bettors in a tough spot. Nomadland is getting all the love right not, and it debuts on streaming this weekend, so it will be building all kinds of buzz for Zhoa. Fincher is the biggest name, but Mank was more an actor’s film than a director’s showcase.

The Value Plays:

Sorkin qualifies here at odds of greater than 5 to 1 and might just be in play. He proved with The Trial of the Chicago 7 that he could direct one of his dialogue-heavy screenplays to maximum effect. King also moved into director mode and hit it out of the park.

The Bet:

There are some strong candidates here, with Sorkin being the best choice if you want value. But it feels like Zhoa’s movie is the most auteur of any here, which puts her in a good spot to cash in.

Winner –Chloe Zhoa (-650)

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

  • Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah): +100
  • Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7): +200
  • Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami): +300
  • Bill Murray (On The Rocks): +700
  • Jared Leto (The Little Things) +900

The Favorites:

Kaluuya was incendiary and is definitely in a spot to score here, even if he felt more like a lead than a supporting actor. Cohen and Odom might be hurt by the fact that they were part of ensembles. They were both great, but not noticeably any better than others in their respective casts.

The Value Plays:

Murray did what Murray does in On The Rocks, although the film didn’t seem to make too much of a dent in the culture. And Leto did his squirrely thing in The Little Things. They’re both big stars, so that puts them in play with the Globes.

The Bet:

This is a competitive category, for sure. But it also probably shouldn’t be overthought, as Kaluuya is the deserving favorite and even-money is a good payback.

Winner –Daniel Kaluuya (+100)

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

  • Amanda Seyfried (Mank): -180
  • Olivia Colman (The Father): +225
  • Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy): +450
  • Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian): +750
  • Helena Zengel (News of the World): +1000

The Favorites:

Seyfried has been receiving buzz ever since Mank debuted, as she stretched well beyond what she’s shown in other flicks. Everything Colman does puts her in the midst of awards consideration, so there could be some weariness there. And Close was marvelous but the movie was generally a mess.

The Value Plays:

Foster doesn’t act much these days, so when she does it’s understandable that it makes an impact. Playing alongside Tom Hanks isn’t an easy way to stand out. But Zengel did just that, making her an outside choice as a child actor.

The Bet:

Tough call here, as Seyfried seems the most likely winner, but maybe not so airtight that it makes sense to bet her at -180. Look for a typical Globes shocker here and take close at 4 ½ to 1.

Winner –Amanda Seyfried (-180)

Best Miniseries/TV Film

  • The Queen’s Gambit: -500
  • Unorthodox: +300
  • Small Axe: +500
  • The Undoing: +750
  • Normal People: +1000

The Favorites:

Did you happen to notice a bunch of your friends playing chess this year after they’d previously never shown any interest in the game?

That’s the impact that The Queen’s Gambit had. Even the second betting choice, Unorthodox, feels like it has no shot.

The Value Plays:

There are some good choices down the board, although they aren’t likely to challenge The Queen’s Gambit. The Undoing didn’t get reviewed all that well but ended up sucking in a lot of viewers with its twists and turns. And Normal People was a gem, even if few people watched.

The Bet:

Here is an example where you shouldn’t be afraid of the overlay. If you’d bet on a horse at 1 to 5, you should feel free to do the same with The Queen’s Gambit, an absolute lock to win a Golden Globes award.

Winner –The Queen’s Gambit (-500)

Best Television Series – Comedy

  • Schitt’s Creek: -250
  • Ted Lasso: +150
  • The Great: +900
  • The Flight Attendant: +900
  • Emily In Paris: +1400

The Favorites:

Because of the timing of when Schitt’s Creek finished (all the way back in the spring of 2020) and the fact that it was so heavily honored at the Emmys, could there be some chance of the Globes going another direction? If so, Ted Lasso could be the beneficiary. And a worthy one at that, as it was an out-of-nowhere combination of humor and heart, ironically enough, very much in the vein of Schitt’s Creek.

The Value Plays:

The Great was a highly stylized take on the history of Catherine The Great that isn’t for everyone. But it certainly wowed a lot of folks. As for The Flight Attendant, as engaging as it was, calling it a comedy is a stretch.

The Bet:

As wonderful as Schitt’s Creek was, the desire to reward something new by the Globes could win out. That makes Ted Lasso the winner of this match.

Winner –Ted Lasso (+150)

Best Television Series – Drama

  • The Crown: -800
  • Ozark: +350
  • The Mandalorian: +750
  • Ratched: +1200
  • Lovecraft Country: +1800

The Favorites:

This was the season that The Crown had to get right, and they absolutely nailed it. That’s why it stands out as such a massive favorite at online betting sites. If you can’t stand the -800 odds, go for Ozark, which continues to have a lot of fans willing to overlook the unreality of it all.

The Value Plays:

Maybe there are some Star Wars buffs in the voting block who could push The Mandalorian into contention. Lovecraft Country, quality-wise, was the only show on the list that could hang with The Crown. If you want a big bomber of a payout, it’s not that far-fetched a choice.

The Bet:

It’s not an exciting pick by any stretch, not a very lucrative one. But The Crown should be crowned once again.

Winner –The Crown (-800)

Best Actor in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Ethan Hawke (The Good Lord Bird): +100
  • Hugh Grant (The Undoing): +150
  • Mark Ruffalo (I Know This Much Is True): +250
  • Bryan Cranston (Your Honor): +850
  • Jeff Daniels (The Comey Rule): +1000

The Favorites:

Hawke is known as more of an angsty type of actor. That’s why it was such a revelation to see him tear into playing John Brown with such gusto. But Grant is a formidable challenger, as he has found a niche lately playing characters whose charms hide dark secrets.

The Value Plays:

Cranston has the big name, but the series wasn’t able to gather a lot of steam. Daniels is as good as they come. But it’s unlikely anybody will want to hear about James Comey any more than they need.

The Bet:

This is another tight one. The guess is that Grant sneaks out of this one with the win over Hawke by a nose.

Winner –Hugh Grant (+150)

Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama

  • Matthew Rhys (Perry Mason): -200
  • Jason Bateman (Ozark): +125
  • Josh O’Connor (The Crown): +500
  • Al Pacino (Hunters): +900
  • Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul): +1000

The Favorites:

Rhys moved on from The Americans and found a plum role with a reimagined Perry Mason. But Bateman’s show has more buzz around it. Even when it gets outlandish, Ozark is grounded by Bateman and Laura Linney.

The Value Plays:

Odenkirk just keeps doing good work, but it’s hard for him to stand out from one year to the next. O’Connor, on the other hand, is a very enticing play. His Prince Charles is an impressive creation, magnetic this season even when the character acted horribly to his wife.

The Bet:

O’Connor is a gift at 5 to 1 as a key player on the most beloved drama on television. Take advantage of it for a nice payout.

Winner –Josh O’Connor (+500)

Best Actor in a TV Series – Musical/Comedy

  • Eugene Levy (Schitt’s Creek): -110
  • Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso): +100
  • Ramy Youssef (Ramy): +550
  • Don Cheadle (Black Monday): +1000
  • Nicholas Hoult (The Great): +1200

The Favorites:

Levy was the most normal of the Schitt’s, but his ability to draw laughs from his reactions to all the crazies around him was invaluable. But Sudeikis is a formidable foe. He made his relentlessly upbeat character seem lived-in and real, somebody for which It was easy to root.

The Value Plays:

Youssef does an excellent job on his underrated and relatively unwatched show. Hoult provided some of the most memorable comic moments on The Great. Although his character is pretty much unredeemable, you couldn’t help but like him.

The Bet:

Again, some Schitt’s fatigue could come into play. We’d love to hear a Sudeikis acceptance speech in character as Lasso, and you should bet on him winning.

Winner –Jason Sudeikis (+100)

Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama

  • Emma Corrin (The Crown): -115
  • Olivia Colman (The Crown): +100
  • Laura Linney (Ozark): +350
  • Sarah Paulson (Ratched): +700
  • Jodie Comer (Killing Eve): +1000

The Favorites:

Well, their characters certainly butted heads, so it makes sense then that Corrin and Colman should battle it out for the award. Corrin pulled off the feat of showing the flaws of one of the most beloved women in the world. And Colman’s character had a lot more meat on the bone this year, especially in her battles with Gillian Anderson’s Margaret Thatcher.

The Value Plays:

There really isn’t much value to be had hear beyond the top two. Maybe you could make a case for Linney if there is a split vote. Comer’s show has grown somewhat stale.

The Bet:

Colman has been rewarded many times in recent years, which means that it’s Corrin’s turn. Look for her to sneak out a win at near even-money.

Winner –Emma Corrin (-115)

Best Actress in a TV Series – Musical/Comedy

  • Catherine O’Hara (Schitt’s Creek): -300
  • Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant): +250
  • Jane Levy (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist): +550
  • Elle Fanning (The Great): +650
  • Lily Collins (Emily in Paris): +900

The Favorites:

O’Hara created one of the most memorable characters in, we’ll say it, television history, so that makes her tough to beat in Moira Rose’s swan song. Give Cuoco credit though for making this a race though. She showed chops on The Flight Attendant that proved she was more than just a sitcom darling.

The Value Plays:

Levy is carrying the banner for network television, so that might give her a boost. Fanning also probably will get some support. The tone of The Great is a tricky one to navigate, but she does it brilliantly.

The Bet:

This is one category where Schitt’s Creek will still reign supreme. O’Hara is a safe play as the favorite.

Winner –Catherine O’Hara (-300)

Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie

  • Anna Taylor-Joy (The Queen’s Gambit): -500
  • Nicole Kidman (The Undoing): +450
  • Shira Haas (Unorthodox): +550
  • Cate Blanchett (Mrs. America): +550
  • Dasiey Edgar-Jones (Normal People): +900

The Favorites:

Woe to anyone trying to knock off Taylor-Joy. Much as her character pretty much wiped the board with her chess competitors, she should do the same with this category. Kidman was great once again, but she won’t beat the breakout star.

The Value Plays:

Blanchett took an unsympathetic character and kept adding new layers to her to make you think twice about disparaging her. Edgar-Jones was also excellent in depicting a romance over many years. But they’re both fighting an uphill battle.

The Bet:

Here is another 1 to 5 favorite worth betting. It will be check and mate when Taylor-Joy collects her trophy.

Winner –Anna Taylor-Joy (-500)

Conclusion

We hope that this article helps you with your wagers on the 2021 Golden Globes at entertainment betting sites. Remember to try to find value when you can. But don’t be afraid to take a heavy favorite now and again to pocket some sure-thing winnings.

Jim Beviglia

Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h …

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