On Saturday, August 8th, the UFC will be live from their APEX Center for UFC on ESPN+ 32: Lewis vs Oleinik. Before we can look at the main card, we’ll be diving into the seven fight preliminary card that’s set to begin at 6PM ET on ESPN+.
This portion of the event features a welterweight clash between Tim Means and Laureano Staropoli. Additionally, Kevin Holland will get to fight this weekend after having his bout against Trevin Giles cancelled moments before the contest last Saturday.
Also on the preliminary card are notable fighters like Nasrat Haqparast, Andrew Sanchez, Gavin Tucker, and plenty of prospects.
UFC betting sites have released their odds for the preliminary card portion of UFC on ESPN+ 32. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds, identify value or upsets, and make these predictions tap out.
Here’s the next UFC Fightcard coming up on Saturday, #UFCVegas6. Rumours that Kevin Holland may get added too if they can find an opponent. Globat card times below aswell
Ali Al Qaisi is making his UFC debut this weekend and enters the octagon on a five fight win streak. He last fought in November and won via unanimous decision. Al Qasi has been a regional fighter up until this point. This will be a big step up in competition.
Al Qasi will have a two inch height advantage in this contest. Five of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. He’s 3-2 when going the distance.
Rivera will make his second trip inside the octagon having last fought in May on short notice. He stepped up a weight class for that fight. This weekend’s contest will be at his usual weight class. The loss snapped a three fight win streak.
Six of Rivera’s nine pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 3-3 when going the distance.
The odds favor this fight going Over 2.5 rounds (-175) and to a decision (-160). It’s hard to argue against this. Sure, we could see a stoppage, but it’s unclear based on Al Qaisi’s level of talent.
Take the safe plays here and go with the fight ending via decision. From there, take Rivera since he’s fought tougher competition.
Irwin Rivera vs Ali Al Qaisi –Rivera (-200)
Over 2.5 rounds (-175)
Fight goes the distance (-160)
Rivera wins via decision (+158)
Peter Barrett vs Youssef Zalal
Peter Barrett (+360)
Youssef Zalal (-450)
Over (-155)/Under (+135) 2.5 rounds
Peter Barrett is the biggest underdog for the entire UFC event. He earned this octagon debut by winning on DWCS 12 months ago. Barrett is 3-1 in his last four fights and spent a good chunk of his career in Cage Titans FC.
Nine of his 11 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s 2-0 when going the distance.
Youssef Zalal is the biggest betting favorite for UFC on ESPN+ 32 as he makes his 3rd trip inside the octagon. So far, Zalal has gone 2-0 in the UFC and has won three straight fights. Seven of his nine pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. He’s 2-2 when the fight goes to a decision.
Nicknamed “The Moroccan Devil,” Zalal has the advantages in standup and should be able to take down Barrett at-will. I don’t see any path to victory for Barrett and I’m also surprised that the odds favor this fight going Over 2.5 rounds (-155) and the full distance (-145).
I see Barrett as a step down in competition for Zalal and I don’t expect this fight to go the full three rounds. The difference in level of talent should be on display this weekend and I’m taking Zalal to win inside the distance via stoppage.
Peter Barrett vs Youssef Zalal –Zalal (-450)
Under 2.5 rounds (+135)
Fight ends inside the distance (+105)
Zalal wins inside the distance (+155)
Justin Jaynes vs Gavin Tucker
Justin Jaynes (+115)
Gavin Tucker (-135)
Over (-150)/Under (+130) 2.5 rounds
Justin Jaynes will make his second trip inside the octagon this weekend having won his debut in June via 1st round TKO. He’s won five straight fights and all of them via 1st round finishes. His win over Frank Camacho two months ago was in 41 seconds and earned him a fight night bonus.
13 of Jaynes’ 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. 12 of his 13 stoppages have come in the first round. He’s 2-4 when going the distance.
This will be Tucker’s 4th trip inside the octagon where he’s 2-1 so far. He made an impressive debut in 2017, but was beat badly in his second fight. Nearly two years later, Tucker would return to the UFC and win via 3rd round submission against Seung Woo Choi last year.
This will be Tucker’s third fight in the last 3 ½ years. Nine of his 11 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. He’s 2-1 when going the distance.
Whether it’s standing up or on the mat, Tucker is clearly the better overall fighter compared to Jaynes. Furthermore, Jaynes is coming down in weight to compete in this featherweight contest. Jaynes typically fights at 155 to 170.
I don’t believe Jaynes is going to have success after cutting this much weight and taking on a better fighter. All four of Jaynes’ losses have come via decision. I see Justin picking up his 5th this weekend.
Look for Tucker to diffuse Jaynes’ striking and rack up more points with takedowns and top control as he wins via unanimous decision.
Justin Jaynes vs Gavin Tucker –Tucker (-135)
Over 2.5 rounds (-150)
Fight goes the distance (-135)
Tucker wins via decision (+170)
Andrew Sanchez vs Wellington Turman
Andrew Sanchez (+135)
Wellington Turman (-155)
Over (-275)/Under (+235) 2.5 rounds
Sanchez had a solid run on The Ultimate Fighter 23 where he earned wins over notable fighters like Khalil Roundtree. Unfortunately, he’s dropped three of his last five fights including his last trip inside the octagon 10 months ago. Sanchez lost via unanimous decision to Marvin Vettori.
Seven of his 11 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 4-2 when going the distance.
Turman will make his third trip inside the octagon and has a UFC record of 1-1. He lost his debut bout against Roberson 13 months ago, but bounced back last November with a unanimous decision win over Markus Perez.
Turman is 5-1 in his last six fights. 11 of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-3 when going the distance.
Sanchez will have a four inch reach advantage and has never been taken down in the UFC. That’s good news considering Turman likes to try and take his fights to the mat. Additionally, Sanchez won’t have to worry about a high cardio pace as Turman is more of a grinder that operates at a plodding pace.
When you look at these factors, along with Sanchez’s overall skillset, it’s rather surprising that Turman is the favorite.
With that said, I’m taking Sanchez to pull off the betting upset and win via unanimous decision. This matchup of styles benefits “El Dirte” more than it does Turman.
There’s no value in the Over 2.5 rounds (-275) and the fight going the distance (-260), but both will happen. Six of Turman’s last eight fights have gone the distance. For Sanchez, five of his last seven fights have gone to a decision including three in a row.
Andrew Sanchez vs Wellington Turman –Sanchez (+135)
Over 2.5 rounds (-275)
Fight goes the distance (-260)
Sanchez wins via decision (+220)
Nasrat Haqparast vs Alexander Munoz
Nasrat Haqparast (-230)
Alexander Munoz (+190)
Over (-150)/Under (+130) 2.5 rounds
Alexander Munoz will make his UFC debut this weekend as he enters the octagon unbeaten in his pro career. Munoz last fought 10 months ago and won via unanimous decision. He also won on DWCS two years ago, but didn’t earn a contract.
Three of Munoz’s wins have come via stoppage with two by way of submission. Munoz is a grappler with a strong wrestling background. He’s also 3-0 when going to a decision.
Nasrat Haqparast has gone 3-1 in his last four fights, but was defeated in January via 1st round KO to the rising Drew Dober. The loss dropped his UFC record to 3-2 overall.
Haqparast has some scary hands for a lightweight as nine of his 11 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 2-1 when going the distance.
Munoz’s only chance at winning this fight is to take Haqparast down to the mat and maintain a smothering top control for most of the contest. If he can’t do this then I don’t even see Munoz making it the full three rounds.
Haqparast has a dangerous striking game and will push a pace that smothers Munoz via a high volume of punches. I expect this big advantage to be the difference in the fight as Haqparast finds a TKO inside the distance. Take the Under 2.5 rounds (+130) as well.
Andrew Sanchez vs Wellington Turman –Haqparast (-230)
Under 2.5 rounds (+130)
Fight ends inside the distance (-110)
Haqparast wins inside the distance (+145)
Haqparast wins via TKO/KO (+165)
Kevin Holland vs Joaquin Buckley
Kevin Holland (-380)
Joaquin Buckley (+315)
Kevin Holland was set to fight Trevin Giles last weekend, but his opponent fainted on the way to the octagon and the fight was cancelled. The UFC tried to find someone else for Holland, but that didn’t come to fruition. Fortunately for Holland, he didn’t have to wait longer than a week for a fight.
Holland enters this contest as the second biggest betting favorite of the event. He’s 4-2 overall in the UFC and has gone 4-1 in his last five fights. Holland defeated Anthony Hernandez in May via 1st round TKO and is looking to climb towards the Top 15 in his division.
14 of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 3-3 when going the distance.
Joaquin Buckley is the second biggest underdog for the entire card. He’s taking this fight on less than a week’s notice and it’s his second bout in eight days as he competed in LFA on July 31st. Buckley is 4-1 in his last five contests.
In addition to fighting for LFA, Buckley competed in Bellator where he went 3-2 overall. Seven of his 10 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 3-1 when going the distance.
As of this writing, there’s no Over/Under listed. However, the fight is heavily favored to finish inside the distance at -400 odds. If I had to guess, the O/U would be listed at 1.5 rounds.
With that said, it’s hard to take Buckley in this situation. The short notice, the quick turnaround, and the step up in competition are too much to overcome. Not to mention, Holland is a solid fighter on the rise and can finish this bout upright or on the mat.
If Holland finds himself in any trouble with Buckley’s decent standup then he will take the fight to the mat and find a submission win. He has six career victories via submission. Buckley’s never tapped out, but he has never fought anyone as promising as Holland.
Either way you look at it, Holland is going to win this fight inside the distance (-180) and continue trending upwards in the UFC.
Kevin Holland vs Joaquin Buckley –Holland (-380)
Fight ends inside the distance (-400)
Holland wins inside the distance (-180)
Tim Means vs Laureano Staropoli
Tim Means (+120)
Laureano Staropoli (-140)
Over (-120)/Under (+100) 2.5 rounds
The main event of the prelims is an intriguing matchup between Tim Means and Laureano Staropoli in the welterweight division.
Means enters as the slight underdog for this bout. He’s been with the UFC for six years and has an octagon record of 9-7 with 1 NC. He’s gone 3-5 in his last eight fights and lost via 2nd round submission against Daniel Rodriguez in February.
24 of his 29 pro wins have come via stoppage with 19 by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-5-1 when going the distance in a fight.
Laureano Staropoli is making his 4th trip inside the octagon and is 2-1 with the UFC. He last fought 10 months ago and lost via decision to Muslim Salikhov. The loss also snapped a seven fight winning streak.
Seven of Staropoli’s nine pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 2-1 when going the distance. All three of his UFC fights have gone the full three rounds.
This fight is very close on paper and with oddsmakers. The Over/Under for this MMA fight is 2.5 rounds which doesn’t give us any real value either with close odds. The prop for the fight going the distance is equally as close with the fight ending inside the distance favored at -130 odds.
Means will have a 3.5 inch reach advantage and is the more technically skilled fighter in this matchup. However, he’s also shown some fading in his career over the last few years. Losing to Rodriguez didn’t help at all. But, he’s still more versatile than Staropoli.
With that said, I still think Means has the ability to win this fight. I don’t see Laureano Staropoli taking this bout to the mat, which means it will be a standup affair and I like Means to win in that area. I’m also going with Means to win via decision in a fight where I have little confidence in either combatant.
Tim Means vs Laureano Staropoli –Means (+120)
Over 2.5 rounds (-120)
Fight goes to decision (-110)
Means wins via decision (+325)
Favorite Value Bets for the Prelims of UFC on ESPN+ 32
The following wagers are my favorite value plays for this event:
Tucker Wins via Decision (+170)
Tucker is the slight favorite in this contest at -135 odds. However, the Over 2.5 rounds is favored at -150 and the fight going to a decision is listed at -135.
Justin Jaynes has never been stopped in his career as all four losses have come via decision. I believe he will lose this fight because Tucker is the better all-around fighter. He has the advantage on the mat, with takedowns and can hang in the standup matchup.
Two of Tucker’s three UFC fights have gone the distance and I see this one ending with the judges as well.
Andrew Sanchez (+135)
Looking at each fighter’s resume, Sanchez has the better credentials. He’s beaten better fighters and has a more balanced overall fight game than Wellington Turman.
Turman will look for the takedowns and methodically plod for three rounds. Sanchez has never been taken down in the UFC and will nullify Turman’s strength. That leaves Turman having to defend against Sanchez’s striking and pressure.
Sanchez has the striking and power advantages in this matchup and the takedown defense to stop Turman. Either “El Dirte” finds the stoppage or he will take the unanimous decision by racking up more points with his striking.
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …