On Saturday, November 14th, the UFC will be live from Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night 182: Felder vs dos Anjos also known as UFC Vegas 14. The main event is a Top 12 lightweight matchup between the 12th ranked Rafael dos Anjos and the 7th ranked Paul Felder.
The co-main event of the evening is a middleweight matchup between Kalinn “Khaos” Williams and Abdul Razak Alhassan. In total, this main card features five bouts with a 7PM ET start time on ESPN+.
UFC betting sites have released their odds for this main card. Let’s step inside the octagon to examine the odds and prop bets available, identify any value, and blast these predictions with some knees in the clinch.
This fight was originally scheduled for Andreas Michailidis to take on Antonio Arroyo. However, Michailidis withdrew from this event due to undisclosed reasons. Eryk Anders agreed to step in to fight Arroyo on a little more than three weeks’ notice.
Arroyo made his UFC debut one year ago and lost via unanimous decision to Andre Muniz. The loss snapped a five fight win streak which included a win on DWCS in July 2019 that earned him a UFC contract.
Eight of his nine pro wins have come via stoppage with four wins apiece for submission and TKO/KO. He’s 1-1 when going the distance. Two of his losses have come via submission.
This will be the 11th trip inside the octagon for Anders who has a 5-5 record in the UFC. He’s 2-4 in his last six fights including his most recent bout which came in May where he lost to Jotko via unanimous decision. Anders declares that he’s still embarrassed about that bout:
“I’m super embarrassed by my performance. That is not how I fight and I’ve never fought like that before. I usually have a 24-hour rule where after 24 hours I get over it and move on. That one has been eating me, not because I lost but by how I performed. That is not my style. Looking to get back in there and be me. I’ve had a really bad taste in my mouth since May.”
Nine of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 4-4 when going the distance.
Anders’ up and down career in the UFC can get pretty frustrating at times as he has the potential to be more successful. I believe we will see Anders put together a solid performance on Saturday and pick up the victory.
I’m just not sure if he will get the stoppage or not. With that said, let’s go with the favored wagers by taking the Over 2.5 rounds (-160) and for the fight to go the distance (-140). Four of Anders’ last five bouts have gone the distance.
Anders’ moneyline of -130 offers the best value as he could win inside the distance or go the full 15 minutes and take home a decision victory.
Antonio Arroyo vs Eryk Anders –Anders (-130)
Over 2.5 rounds (-160)
Fight goes the distance (-140)
Anders wins via decision (+200)
Kay Hansen vs Cory McKenna
Kay Hansen (-225)
Cory McKenna (+185)
Over (-270)/Under (+230) 2.5 rounds
McKenna makes her UFC debut this week having earned a contract in August with a victory on DWCS. She’s on a three fight win streak that includes victories in Cage Warriors. The newcomer, a member of Team Alpha Male run by Urijah Faber, commented on her upcoming fight:
“Experience wise it is pretty even due to me having such an extensive amateur career and I don’t really regard age as a factor that comes into play. I truly believe that I am the hardest working athlete in the division and have left no stone unturned, so I think my mentality and work ethic will give me all the edge I need.”
Three of her five pro wins have come via stoppage with two by way of TKO/KO. She’s 2-1 when going the distance and has not been stopped in a pro fight.
Kay Hansen is also 21 years old just like her opponent. Yet, she’s already fought in the UFC and picked up a big win in her debut five months ago over Jinh Yu Frey via 3rd round submission. Hansen is on a three fight win streak which also includes two wins in Invicta FC.
Six of her seven pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. She’s 1-2 when going the distance.
Despite what online betting sites have listed each fighter’s moneyline at, I think this bout is going to be a lot closer than oddsmakers do. McKenna is a talented all-around fighter with skills on the mat and in the striking department.
In fact, I believe she has the advantage in the striking over Hansen. However, Hansen may have the slight edge on the mat. With that said, take the Over 2.5 rounds (-270) and for the fight to tog the distance (-265) as they will most likely nullify each other’s strengths.
I want to pick McKenna to win and I think she can via decision since she’s the better striker. However, it’s hard to ignore Hansen’s overall development due to her time in Invicta FC and the UFC. I’m taking Hansen to win via decision (+110) which offers the best value since I don’t see a stoppage in this bout.
Kay Hansen vs Cory McKenna –Hansen (-225)
Over 2.5 rounds (-270)
Fight goes the distance (-265)
Hansen wins via decision (+110)
Julian Marquez vs Saparbek Safarov
Julian Marquez (-280)
Saparbek Safarov (+240)
Over (+100)/Under (-120) 1.5 rounds
The big storyline heading into this contest is the return of Julian Marquez who missed two years due to a significant shoulder injury that required surgery. Known as an athlete that’s not afraid to speak his mind, Marquez talked about his big return to the octagon:
“I’ve been waiting for this moment for the past 28 months, and we were going to have it 25 months in, but we had to push it off. My body is like a (expletive) Greek god right now. I feel amazing, I feel just energetic and I’m ready for Nov. 14. I can’t wait to display what I’ve been working on during my time off, during the time I was doing surgeries and everything, all the stuff I was able to build while not being able to use one arm, so I’m excited.”
Marquez earned his UFC contract in August 2017 with a 2nd round KO over Phil Hawes on DWCS. He won his UFC debut in December 2017, but lost his second octagon fight in July 2018 via split decision to Alessio Di Chirico.
All seven of his pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 0-2 when going the distance.
Safarov has the unenviable task of welcoming Marquez back to the octagon. That’s like welcoming a hungry lion to dinner. Three of his last four fights have ended in defeat. All four of those bouts were in the UFC. He last fought in March and lost via 1st round submission to Rodolfo Vieira.
Eight of his nine pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 1-0 when going the distance.
15 of their combined 21 pro fights have ended under 1.5 rounds, so let’s take the Under (-120) in this one. Even if it goes Over, this bout will definitely finish inside the distance (-320), as the two men have gone to a decision three times in 21 total bouts.
As for the winner, you have to go with Julian Marquez in this one. Not only is he the better overall fighter, but this bout is handpicked for Marquez to succeed. I expect a TKO win probably before the 1st round ends. 13 of their 21 total fights have ended in the opening round.
The best value for this fight is Marquez winning inside the distance at -145 odds.
Julian Marquez vs Saparbek Safarov –Marquez (-280)
Under 1.5 rounds (-120)
Fight ends inside the distance (-320)
Marquez wins inside the distance (-145)
Marquez wins via TKO/KO (+175)
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Kalinn Williams
Abdul Razak Alhassan (-230)
Kalinn Williams (+190)
Over (+145)/Under (-165) 1.5 rounds
Williams enters this co-main event on a seven fight win streak, but also as a large underdog. He made his UFC debut in February and won via 1st round KO over Alex Morono. Despite being viewed as the underdog, Williams is very confident heading into this contest:
“I will take what he gives me. If he comes in crazy, I will do what I have to do. I have knockout power in both hands, chin good, cardio is great, I’m well-rounded. I’m a smart fighter. I will definitely use everything, they will see a show. It is not always about power, it comes down to speed, technical, mental all that. I can’t wait. It will be a great fight for the fans. I’m going to keep leveling up and they will see me on pay-per-view.”
Six of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 4-1 when going the distance and has never been stopped in a pro fight.
Alhassan has been with the UFC since the fall of 2016 and has posted an overall record of 4-2 inside the octagon. He has a notable win over Niko Price two years ago, but lost in his last fight via unanimous decision to Mounir Lazzez.
All ten of his wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 0-2 when going the distance and has also never been stopped in a pro fight.
With both of these men loving to knockout their opponents, someone is going to taste their first stoppage loss and most likely in the 1st round. All 10 of Alhassan’s wins have come in the 1st round. Williams has five first round wins.
Take the Under 1.5 rounds (-165) and for the fight to end inside the distance (-650). As for the winner, I have to give the edge to Alhassan, but I do believe Williams is a live dog in this bout. Alhassan should pick up another 1st round TKO/KO (-160).
I don’t see any real value in this bout. If you want to get risky then take Williams’ moneyline as he does have a puncher’s chance.
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Kalinn Williams –Alhassan (-230)
Under 1.5 rounds (-165)
Fight ends inside the distance (-650)
Alhassan wins inside the distance (-180)
Alhassan wins via TKO/KO (-160)
Paul Felder vs Rafael dos Anjos
Paul Felder (+165)
Rafael dos Anjos (-190)
Over (-185)/Under (+155) 4.5 rounds
UFC Fight Night 182 was in danger of losing its main event as Islam Makhachev withdrew from this bout against dos Anjos. However, Paul Felder decided to step in on less than one week’s notice to save the event:
“I thought about it, and I decided with everything going on in the world and all the sad things going on in people’s lives and losing their jobs and suffering, and we just lost Alex freaking Trebek to pancreatic cancer, I was like, ‘Man, you know you’re still 36. You’re young. You’re in shape. Save the date. Let’s go get paid. Let’s have fun. You’re fighting a legend. What do I have to lose?”
Felder last fought in February and lost via split decision to Dan Hooker. I had Felder winning that contest as did many other pundits. He’s 2-2 in his last four fights with both losses coming via split decision.
11 of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of TKO/KO. He’s 6-4 when going the distance. Felder has only been stopped once in his career and that was due to a doctor’s stoppage.
Rafael dos Anjos has lost four of his last five fights including two in a row. However, all of those losses came at welterweight and against that division’s best fighters like Usman, Covington and Edwards. RDA is dropping back down to lightweight where he used to be at the top of.
15 of his 29 pro wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of submission. He’s 14-10 when going the distance and does have three TKO/KO losses in his career.
The big question here is what shape Felder will be in as he has to cut at least 15 pounds. Additionally, if he puts that weight back on for the fight then how will his body respond?
With that said, I am a fan of Felder and believe he should be ranked higher. I think he won the Hooker fight and deserves a run at the title. Plus, he’s a fantastic UFC commentator and really has a bright career in that aspect.
I’m taking Felder to win this fight via decision (+260). Five of RDA’s last six bouts have gone the distance as have Felder’s last four trips inside the octagon. Go with the Over 4.5 rounds (-185) and to go the full 25 minutes (-175).
Felder has been training for a triathlon and is in great cardio shape. I believe he will have the advantage in the endurance department and with striking as well. As long as he doesn’t get sloppy on the mat, Felder should win this bout. As he says, he really has nothing to lose here.
Other than Felder’s moneyline, I’m not seeing any real value for this contest.
Paul Felder vs Rafael dos Anjos –Felder (+165)
Over 4.5 rounds (-185)
Fight goes the distance (-175)
Felder wins via decision (+260)
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …