On Saturday, November 14th, the UFC will be live from its Apex Center for UFC Fight Night 182: Felder vs dos Anjos. Before we can take a look at the main card fights, we’ll take a look at the seven fight preliminary card which begins at 4PM ET on ESPN+.
The prelim action features notable fighters like Randa Markos, Louis Smolka, Alex Morono, Rhys McKee, Miranda Granger, the debut of Kanak Murata, Brendan Allen and Sean Strickland who will be fighting in the featured spot of this portion of the event.
UFC betting sites have released their odds for the full UFC Fight Night 182 preliminary card. Let’s step inside the octagon to examine these odds, identify potential value, and leg kick these predictions.
The preliminary action gets underway with a heavyweight matchup between two fighters looking for a win.
Martinez joined the UFC two months ago on short notice and lost via 2nd round submission to Alexander Romanov. The loss snapped a two fight win streak. Martinez had been alternating between Rizin and Deep where he did hold some gold.
11 of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 4-2-2 when going the distance.
Mayes finally earned a UFC contract in July 2019 after three fights on DWCS. He scored a 1st round TKO and was offered a contract where he debuted in October 2019. Unfortunately, Mayes has lost his first two octagon appearances both by submission.
Five of his seven pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO. He’s 2-0 when going the distance.
Mayes’ biggest weakness is on the mat. Fortunately for “Kong” his opponent Martinez isn’t a grappler, but a slugger. That bodes well for Mayes who has more power and is the better striker.
This fight should end in a TKO/KO and I’m betting that Mayes will be the one who gets his hand raised. The only question is when that knockout will happen. The Over 1.5 rounds (-175) is favored and is the safer choice. This fight will end inside the distance (-310).
Mayes winning inside the distance (-138) and via TKO/KO (-115) offers the best value for this fight unless you believe Martinez will win, which is crazy talk!
Don’Tale Mayes vs Roque Martinez –Mayes (-225)
Over 1.5 rounds (-175)
Fight ends inside the distance (-310)
Mayes wins inside the distance (-138)
Mayes wins via TKO/KO (-115)
Tony Gravely vs Geraldo de Freitas
Tony Gravely (-150)
Geraldo de Freitas (+130)
Over (-225)/Under (+185) 2.5 rounds
Geraldo de Freitas made his UFC debut in February 2019 and won via unanimous decision. That extended his winning streak to seven straight contests. However, the streak was snapped in his next UFC fight where he lost via split decision to Chris Gutierrez in August 2019.
It’s been 15 months since de Freitas has last fought. A March 2020 fight was scrapped due to the health crisis, so this will be his first fight of 2020. Nine of his 12 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. He’s 3-5 when going the distance.
Gravely made his UFC debut in January after winning seven straight contests. Unfortunately, he lost this fight to Brett Johns via 3rd round submission. However, he did win a fight night bonus for that contest. Furthermore, he held his own against a ranked fighter.
11 of his 19 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 8-1 when going the distance.
Despite having five submission losses, Gravely is still the superior grappler between the two. He should also have the slight advantage in striking as well despite giving up two inches in height and 2.5 inches in reach.
Gerald de Freitas has never been stopped before and I don’t see it happening in this contest either. Go with the Over 2.5 rounds (-225) and for this fight to end via decision (-195). De Freitas has gone to a decision in four of his last five bouts.
Once with the judges, I like Gravely to win via decision (+135), which offers the best value for this bout. Gravely is 8-1 when going the distance. Geraldo de Freitas is 3-5 when going to a decision.
Tony Gravely vs Geraldo de Freitas –Gravely (-150)
Over 2.5 rounds (-225)
Fight ends via decision (-195)
Gravely wins via decision (+135)
Randa Markos vs Kanako Murata
Randa Markos (+155)
Kanako Murata (-175)
Over (-345)/Under (+285) 2.5 rounds
This bout was originally scheduled for Livinha Souza to take on Kanako Murata. However, Souza was forced to withdraw for undisclosed reasons. Randa Markos is stepping up on a little more than one week’s notice.
Randa Markos has been a mainstay in the UFC since 2014 where she has tallied 15 trips inside the octagon. Unfortunately, a two fight losing streak to Ribas and Dern has dropped her overall record to 6-8-1 in the UFC.
Markos last fought in September and suffered a 1st round submission defeat to Dern. She also fought in March where she lost via decision to Ribas. Markos is 1-3 in her last four bouts.
Four of her 10 pro wins have come via submission. She’s 6-7-1 when going the distance.
Kanako Murata will make her UFC debut this weekend and enters the octagon on a seven fight win streak. She has a strong grappling background and has been a success in top promotions like Pancrase, Rizin and most recently in Invicta FC where she was a champion.
Six of her 11 pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. She’s 5-0 when going the distance.
Murata was a high profiled signing for the UFC and we should see why in this fight. Her grappling talents from wrestling and judo will make her a force to be reckoned with. She has the skills to quickly rise up in the division and eventually become a title contender. Murata commented on signing with the UFC:
“Since signing with the UFC I feel like I am on the start line. I will focus on every fight that is put in front of me and continue to climb the ladder. That is something that will not change during my career.”
Markos is the better striker, but she will spend a good amount of time on the mat trying to survive Murata’s wrestling.
Combined, these two women have gone the distance in 19 of 32 total fights. Markos has gone the distance in eight of her last 10 bouts. So, it’s easy to see why the Over 2.5 rounds (-345) and the prop bet of the fight going the distance (-305) are heavily favored.
Once with the judges, I like Murata to win via decision (+125) in her UFC debut. This prop bet also offers the best value considering it’s almost a guarantee they go the full 15 minutes.
Randa Markos vs Kanako Murata –Murata (-175)
Over 2.5 rounds (-345)
Fight goes the distance (-305)
Murata wins via decision (+125)
Louis Smolka vs Jose Quinonez
Louis Smolka (-135)
Jose Quinonez (+115)
Over (-165)/Under (+145) 2.5 rounds
Jose Quinonez is the slight underdog for this bout as “El Teco” is 5-3 in the octagon, but 1-2 in his last three contests. He last fought in March and lost via 1st round TKO to Sean O’Malley. He also lost to top prospect Nathaniel Wood during this stretch.
Three of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with two by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-1 when going the distance.
Luis Smolka is currently in his second run with the UFC. He first joined the promotion in January 2014 where he won four of his first five fights.
Unfortunately, a four fight losing streak sent him packing. Yet, Smolka turned things around with a three fight win streak, which brought him back to the UFC in November 2018. Since then, he’s gone 2-2 inside the octagon which brings his overall UFC record to 7-7.
Smolka last fought in May where he lost via 1st round submission to the talented Casey Kenney. Both of his losses since returning to the UFC have come via submission.
14 of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven wins apiece for submission and TKO/KO. He’s 2-4 when going the distance.
This is going to be a close fight. Smolka is the better submission artist and only needs his opponent to make one small mistake on the mat to lock in a submission hold and get the win. However, in this fight, Quinonez can hold his own on the mat.
Furthermore, Quinonez has the advantage on the feet which should allow him to win some rounds via striking from a distance and landing more punches. I am going with the Over 2.5 rounds (-165) and for the fight to go the distance (-155).
Six of Quinonez’s 10 pro bouts have gone the distance where he’s 5-1 in those contests. I believe he will pick up his 6th decision victory this weekend as he outpoints Smolka.
Quinonez winning via decision offers +225 odds which is a sweet return. However, his money line of +115 odds is the best value for this contest.
Louis Smolka vs Jose Quinonez –Quinonez (+115)
Over 2.5 rounds (-165)
Fight goes the distance (-155)
Quinonez wins via decision (+225)
Alex Morono vs Rhys McKee
Alex Morono (-190)
Rhys McKee (+165)
Over (-140)/Under (+120) 2.5 rounds
Rhys McKee made his UFC debut at Fight Island over the summer and was destroyed by Khamzat Chimaev via 1st round TKO. It certainly wasn’t the first impression that he wanted to make inside the octagon. The loss snapped a three fight win streak that came in Cage Warriors.
McKee had success on the British MMA scene where he went 10-2-1, but was unfortunate to draw Chimaev who is a human buzz saw. Rhys hopes to bounce back this weekend against Morono.
All 10 of his pro win shave come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s 0-1-1 when going the full distance in a fight.
Alex Morono entered 2020 with a three fight win streak. Yet, that streak was snapped in February with a 1st round loss to Kalinn Williams who is fighting on the main card of this event.
Morono has been with the UFC since January 2016 and has an overall record of 5-3 with 1 NFC inside the octagon. 11 of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. He’s 5-4 when going the distance.
Morono is the better overall fighter between the two. He has the advantage on the mat and can hold his own in the striking battle. McKee seems to be more of striker who is unable to survive when on the mat.
I’m taking Morono to win this fight inside the distance (-120) and Under 2.5 rounds (+120). I don’t see this bout making it to the 3rd round as Morono will get this fight to the mat and pick up a submission victory or a ground and pound stoppage.
The best value for this fight is for it to end inside the distance at -120 odds. McKee has gone the distance in just two of his 14 pro fights. For Rhys to win, it will be via TKO/KO. Furthermore, Morono’s advantage on the mat makes it clear that this fight won’t go the full 15 minutes.
Plus, Morono does have power in his punches and McKee has suffered two TKO/KO defeats in his career.
Alex Morono vs Rhys McKee –Morono (-190)
Under 2.5 rounds (+120)
Fight ends inside the distance (-120)
Morono wins inside the distance (+260)
Ashley Yoder vs Miranda Granger
Ashley Yoder (+120)
Miranda Granger (-140)
Over (-335)/Under (+275) 2.5 rounds
Ashley Yoder comes into this bout as the slight underdog. She’s dropped her last two fights and has a 2-5 record inside the octagon. “Spider Monkey” last fought in August and lost via unanimous decision to Livinha Souza. She hasn’t won since June 2019 in a decision victory over Syuri Kondo.
Four of her seven pro wins have come via submission. She’s 3-6 when going the distance. Yoder has never been stopped in a pro fight as all six of her losses have come via the judges.
Miranda Granger steps back inside the octagon since suffering her first pro loss 11 months ago to Amanda Lemos via 1st round submission. She was 7-0 in her career and had a successful UFC debut in August 2019 before dropping her first career fight.
Since that loss, Granger has faced some adversity outside of the cage. She had a major health scare when doctors found blood clots in her lungs.
Fully healthy, Miranda was set to return to the octagon in August, but her opponent Nadia Kassem withdrew due to an injury. Yet, Granger actually thinks Yoder is a better fight for her than Kassem was:
“This fight is much better. It’s a more skilled opponent and it’s overall better for moving forward in the division.”
Six of her seven pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. She’s 1-0 when going to a decision.
Both women prefer to grapple rather than strike, which is evident by their combined nine submission wins in 14 total victories. Yet, because they are both so proficient on the mat, they will most likely nullify any submission wins for each other.
Yoder has never been stopped and, despite Granger’s grappling talents, I just don’t see it happening in this contest. Instead, take the Over 2.5 rounds (-335) and for the fight to go the full 15 minutes (-300).
Once with the judges, I believe Granger will pick up the decision win (+155). She’s the better fighter at this stage of her career than Yoder is.
However, the best value for this fight is Granger’s moneyline of -140 odds. It also covers the possibility of Miranda finding a stoppage along the way.
Ashley Yoder vs Miranda Granger –Granger (-140)
Over 2.5 rounds (-335)
Fight goes the distance (-300)
Granger wins via decision (+155)
Brendan Allen vs Sean Strickland
Brendan Allen (-110)
Sean Strickland (-110)
Over (-185)/Under (+155) 2.5 rounds
This middleweight bout has the closest betting odds for the entire UFC Fight Night 182 event. Ironically, this bout was also thrown together at the last minute.
Brendan Allen was scheduled to face Ian Heinisch last weekend, but the bout was cancelled due to Ian’s positive covid test. Those two had a rivalry prior to joining the UFC and it was definitely built up for their octagon bout on the 7th of November.
Instead of rebooking the Heinisch fight, the UFC decided to scrap it altogether. However, they quickly found another opponent for Allen in Sean Strickland who just fought on Halloween and defeated Jack Marshman via unanimous decision.
The fight against Marshman was Strickland’s first bout in two years after suffering a serious motorcycle accident. Strickland has won two straight contests and is 8-3 with the UFC. Surprisingly, he’s undefeated as a middleweight with his losses coming down at welterweight.
In his return to the octagon, Strickland showed improved boxing skills. But, don’t let that fool you because he’s still dangerous on the mat.
13 of his 21 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of TKO/KO. He’s 8-2 when going the distance.
Allen went from facing a Top 15 ranked opponent where a win would’ve moved him into the Top 15, to a non-ranked opponent that is quite possibly even more dangerous that Ian Heinisch. Allen has won seven straight bouts including going 3-0 inside the octagon.
Allen earned his contract with a win on DWCS in July 2019. He last fought in July and defeated Kyle Daukaus via unanimous decision.
13 of his 15 pro fights have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission. He’s 2-2 when going the distance.
This is a coin-flip fight where either man can win. However, I am sucker for a good story and Strickland is just that. He overcame a motorcycle accident that almost cost him his UFC career as he was told not to fight again:
“Every doctor I spoke to told me, ‘Hey Sean, you probably can fight again, but it’s probably not a good idea.’ My surgeon said, ‘You left part of your kneecap on the road.’ I had doctors telling me I shouldn’t fight again, but at the end of the day, this is all I wanted to do. I dropped out of high school to be a UFC fighter. This is all I’ve done since I was 14 or 15.”
At 29 years old, Strickland has spent half of his life in MMA. He turned pro around the age of 17 and has never looked back. He started off 16-0 in his career and was a touted prospect when entering the UFC. If he would’ve stayed at middleweight, who knows where his career would’ve’ gone.
At just 24 years old, Allen is a rising prospect as well. Even if he loses, he still has plenty of time to bounce back and evolve into a contender.
I believe Strickland’s improved boxing will be the difference in this contest and I’m taking “Tarzan” to win this fight via unanimous decision (+175). So, you can also take the Over 2.5 rounds (-185) and for the fight to go the full 15 minutes (-165).
Strickland’s moneyline of -110 odds, or Allen if you decide, offers the best value for this contest.
Brendan Allen vs Sean Strickland –Strickland (-110)
Over 2.5 rounds (-185)
Fight goes the distance (-165)
Strickland wins via decision (+175)
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …