Updated 2020 Tour de France Betting Guide

Tour de France Image

On Monday, September 7th, the Tour de France comes to a halt as riders and teams get to enjoy the first rest day of this three week long Grand Tour.

The action was intense heading into the rest day as the Tour went through two punishing days in the Pyrenees. With nine stages complete, the 2020 Tour de France still has 12 more to go before we crown this year’s champion in Paris.

With so much cycling action remaining, and concerns over covid shutting down the Tour, let’s take a look at the updated Tour de France betting odds, the latest news and what we can expect from the riders heading into Stage 10 and beyond.

Concerns Over Testing

Right now, no news is good news when it comes to the fact that there have been zero reported positive tests among riders or teams during the first nine days of the Tour de France.

However, massive testing began on Sunday night and will continue throughout Monday’s rest day. This is the first time that largescale testing has been done since teams arrived in Nice prior to Stage 1 on August 29th.

The main concern about this round of testing is that if two or more riders from a team test positive then the entire team is disqualified and sent home.

If multiple teams are sent home then the Tour could be shut down after nine or ten stages and the leaders of each classification will be declared the winners of their respective jersey competition.

Stage 10 and Beyond

Stage 10 is the flattest stage of the Tour and is a great transitional day from the mountains of the Pyrenees to the flat grounds along the coast of France. Sam Bennet (+250) is the favorite to win Stage 10, but my money is on Caleb Ewan (+300) who’s the fastest sprinter of the bunch.

Riders will have relatively flat terrains throughout the week and then enjoy the 2nd and final rest day of the Grand Tour on September 14th.

Following the second rest day, the fireworks will begin as the riders head to the Alps where only the strongest will survive this epic three week war of attrition.

The Latest Tour de France Betting Odds for Yellow Jersey

  • Primoz Roglic (-150)
  • Tadej Pogacar (+275)
  • Egan Bernal (+325)
  • Mikel Landa (+1800)
  • Nairo Quintana (+2000)
  • Miguel Angel Lopez (+4000)
  • Richie Porte (+4000)
  • Rigoberto Uran (+4000)
  • Romain Bardet (+5000)
  • Adam Yates (+6600)
  • Guillaume Martin (+6600)
  • Tom Dumoulin (+8000)
  • Bauke Mollema (+10000)
  • Enric Mas Nicolau (+10000)

After the first nine days of racing, Primoz Roglic leads the Yellow Jersey competition by 21 seconds over second place Egan Bernal. The following is the current General Classification standings as of this publication:

  1. Primoz Roglic
  2. Egan Bernal +21”
  3. Guillaume Martin +28”
  4. Roman Bardet +30”
  5. Nairo Quintana +32”
  6. Rigoberto Uran +32
  7. Tadej Pogacar +44”

In my Yellow Jersey betting preview, I picked Primoz Roglic to win this year’s Tour de France. As of now, nothing has happened to change my mind. In fact, I feel even more confident that Roglic will win as he has the strongest team (Jumbo-Visma) and Primoz has never looked in danger.

Heading into the Tour, Roglic was listed at +150 odds to win it. Currently, he’s listed at -150 odds which still offers value considering he’s in the lead and has put all of his GC rivals in trouble at one time or another.

Also before the Tour started, I had picked Egan Bernal and Tadej Pogacar to join Roglic on the Podium. Obviously Bernal was an easy choice considering he won the 2019 TDF, but Pogacar was not.

The 21 year old Slovenian was making his TDF debut and listed at +1400 to win the Tour and +250 to place on the Podium. Currently, Pogacar is 7th in the standings due to getting caught out in the crosswinds on Stage 7. He lost over 80 seconds.

Yet, Pogacar has clawed back half of that time deficit including winning Stage 9.

Other than Roglic, Pogacar has looked the strongest among the GC favorites.

He’s now listed as the second odds on favorite to win the Tour at +275 odds and has seen his odds go from +250 to -286 for a Podium finish. Bernal has gone from -200 to -225 in Podium odds and from +200 to +300 to win the Tour de France.

I’m even more convinced of my Podium selections now than I was prior to the Tour. The only question is whether or not Bernal will finish runner-up or in third place.

Yellow Jersey Winner: Primoz Roglic (-150)

Podium Finishes: Roglic (-625), Pogacar (-286), Bernal (-225)

Updated Points Classification Betting Odds

The points classification, which is represented by the green jersey, is a two-man battle according to the latest cycling odds courtesy of BetOnline.ag:

  • Peter Sagan (-110)
  • Sam Bennett (+120)
  • Wout Van Aert (+600)
  • Bryan Coquard (+2000)
  • Caleb Ewan (+2800)
  • Julian Alaphilippe (+3300)
  • Matteo Trentin (+5000)
  • Alexander Kristoff (+8000)

The following is the current Green Jersey standings:

  1. Peter Sagan – 138 points
  2. Sam Bennett – 131 points
  3. Wout Van Aert – 111 points
  4. Bryan Coquard – 106 points
  5. Alexander Kristoff – 93 points

As I stated before the Tour began, until someone defeats Peter Sagan in the points classification, you have to bet on the “King of Green” to win. Sagan’s odds started off at -175, but have dropped to -110 despite leading the competition.

There are some concerns over Sagan in this year’s Tour as he doesn’t look as explosive as he has in years past. Yet, the veteran has continued to earn points at the end of the stages with high finishes and via intermediate sprints through various points of different stages.

Sam Bennett, who’s in 2nd place, briefly wore the green jersey before Sagan took it back this past weekend. Bennett has proven to be a tough challenge for Sagan, but he’s also showed that an inability to survive the medium range mountain stages where Sagan has showed he can.
I believe that Sagan still has the advantage over Bennett and will continue to expand on his lead over the Irishman.

The one rider that I have been the most impressed with, in addition to Pojacar and Roglic, has been Wout Van Aert. I predicted that he would finish in the Top 3 for the green jersey and he hasn’t disappointed at all. In fact, he’s been incredible.

Before it’s all said and done, I wouldn’t be surprised if Van Aert closes the gap on Sagan and puts the pressure on Peter.

With that said, I’m not changing my pick. I’m sticking with Sagan and I believe his current line of -110 odds offer great value.

Green Jersey Winner: Peter Sagan (-110)

Current White Jersey Betting Odds

The Best Young Rider classification, which is represented by the white jersey, has the following updated betting odds:

  • Tadej Pogacar (-155)
  • Egan Bernal (+135)
  • Enric Mas Nicolau (+1600)
  • Sergio Higuita (+6600)

The reality is that this classification is a two-man race between Tadej Pogacar and Egan Bernal. At the beginning of the Tour de France, my pick was Egan Bernal to win the white jersey for the second year in a row.

Bernal crushed the competition last year and I thought he would win again this year, but I did feel that Pogacar was going to keep this race close.

Currently, after nine stages, Bernal leads Pogacar by just 23 seconds. Although Enric Mas is in 3rd place at only 1 minute and 41 seconds behind, he’s already shown that he can’t hang with Bernal and Pogacar in the mountains.

As impressed as I have been with Pojacar, and as much as I’ve been rooting him on, I still believe that Bernal will win the white jersey.

The third week of the Grand Tour is where we will see Bernal make his move towards the top of the GC standings, which will only increase his lead in the Best Young Rider competition.

Bernal’s odds of winning the white jersey went from -162 to -182 at the beginning of the Tour. He now sits at +135 odds which is incredible value. Take Bernal to win this competition.

White Jersey Winner: Egan Bernal (+135)

Latest King of the Mountains Betting Odds

The following KOTM betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Julian Alaphilippe (+450)
  • David Gaudu (+700)
  • Marc Hirschi (+800)
  • Tadej Pogacar (+800)
  • Primoz Roglic (+1400)
  • Ilnur Zakarin (+1800)
  • Nans Peters (+1800)
  • Thibaut Pinot (+2200)
  • Warren Barguil (+2200)
  • Benoit Cosnefroy (+2500)
  • Adam Yates (+2800)
  • Daniel Martinez (+2800)
  • Egan Bernal (+3300)
  • Nairo Quintana (+4000)

I’ve said it before, and I will say it again, this is the hardest jersey competition to predict for the 2020 Tour de France. After a week plus of racing, we still have no clue who will win.

Benoit Cosnefroy leads his teammate Nans Peters by five points and third place Marc Hirschi by 10 points. And, there’s still a ton of climbing left to do and points left to earn.

I don’t see any of these three riders remaining at the top of the standings when we get into the Alps unless they get into a breakaway and go over the climbs first. That’s exactly what Hirschi did on Stage 9 which catapulted him from 27th to 3rd in the KOTM standings.
However, I don’t see Hirschi repeating that. Guys like Toms Skujins and Thomas de Gendt could possibly accomplish this feat.

Between Stage 13 through 17, there are four mountain top finishes including double the KOTM points on Stage 17 as riders summit the Col de la Loze.

With so many points still available, and eventual GC riders being dropped from the Yellow Jersey competition, this battle for the King of the Mountains jersey is going to heat up in the third week of the Tour.

I picked Adam Yates to win the KOTM. He hasn’t disappointed considering he wore the yellow jersey for a few days before Roglic took it on Stage 9.

Unfortunately, Yates has shown that he can’t hang with the top climbers in the TDF. So, I am changing my pick.

Originally, I had said that Nairo Quintana was a longshot to win the KOTM as he opened at +3500 odds. He’s still a longshot at +4000 odds, but I am going to pick the 2013 polka dot jersey winner to capture this year’s competition.

Currently, Quintana sits in 5th place overall for the Yellow Jersey at just 32 seconds behind. However, I don’t see Quintana beating out Pogacar, Bernal or Roglic for a podium finish. Instead, his efforts in the Alps will most likely put him in position to win the KOTM competition.
For the sake of full transparency, when I do another article on the second rest day of the Tour next week, I will probably pick another rider to win this competition. Bottom line, your guess is as good as mine.

KOTM Winner: Nairo Quintana (+4000)

Revisiting The Five Best TDF Bets

Just prior to the Grand Depart in Nice, I picked the following cycling wagers as my Top 5 TDF Bets:

1. Wout Van Aert to Score a Top 3 Finish (+125) in the Points Classification

Currently, WVA is sitting 3rd in the competition and should continue to remain near the top of the standings as he’s proven to be arguably the strongest rider in the Tour. This pick is on track to hit.

2. Egan Bernal to Win the White Jersey (-182)

As mentioned, Bernal crushed the competition in 2019, but is only 23 seconds ahead of 2nd place Tadej Pogacar. In fact, online betting sites have shifted to Pogacar as he’s become the betting favorite at -155 while Bernal is listed at +135 odds.
This pick should hit and if you want to double down on Bernal, you can get even better value heading into the second week of the Tour.

3. Romain Bardet Finishes in Top 3 for KOTM

Bardet’s odds of finishing in the Top 3 for the KOTM classification were +250 at the beginning of the Tour. Currently, he’s not in the Top 10 in KOTM points. However, he does sit 4th overall in the GC standings just 30 seconds of Roglic.

This is significant because Bardet will be competing with the top GC riders when they get into the Alps. He won the polka dot jersey last year as he ended up 15th in the GC. I can see Bardet making a strong push in this competition during the last week of the Tour as he tries to make the Podium in the GC.

We’re not giving up hope for this one just yet, but this competition has proven to be the widest open of the four individual classifications.

4. Team Jumbo-Visma to Win the Team Classification (+175)

This wager we might lose. Despite winning three stages already, Team Jumbo-Visma sits 5th in the team standings roughly 17’07” back of 1st place Movistar Team. They’ve fallen from +175 in odds to +900 as of the first rest day.

Our only hope for this wager to hit is in the Alps where I expect Jumbo-Visma to decimate the field. I also expect this team to win at least two more of 12 the remaining stages.

5. Richard Carapaz to Finish in Top 10 for Yellow Jersey (-143)

Carapaz has had a few slipups and cracks in the first nine days, but he currently sits 15th in the standings at 3’42” back of Roglic. With plenty of tough stages left, I fully expect Carapaz to climb up in the standings.

Right now, we have a few riders that should fall like Porte, Mollema and Uran to name a few. Carapaz has been called to do work for his leader Egan Bernal, but Team Ineos has been looking better over the last few days.

There was concern with the Ineos looking inferior to Jumbo-Visma, but they’ve turned things around and are getting back on track with their initial plans of having two riders high in the standings for the yellow jersey.

I believe this bet is still going to pay off for us. The third week of the Tour will prove beneficial for Team Ineos, specifically with Bernal and Carapaz.

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …

View all posts by Rick Rockwell